The freight industry, which looked headed for serious trouble in April, is now seeing signs of a short-term recovery. Thanks to a 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China, freight volumes are beginning to rise again. This turnaround was the focus of the May “State of Freight” webinar hosted by FreightWaves.
- Short-Term Surge in Freight May Be Coming
FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller and SONAR Director Zach Strickland explained that imports from China are starting to rebound. Shippers are rushing to get goods into the U.S. while the tariff pause lasts. This could lead to a short but sharp spike in freight volumes lasting a few weeks, possibly longer. Fuller compared the coming surge to the sudden increase in freight after COVID lockdowns ended.
- Intermodal Freight Is Gaining Ground
With more goods arriving at ports, many companies are using rail (intermodal) to move freight inland. Intermodal shipping offers more flexibility and lower costs when there are no tight delivery deadlines. Strickland noted that volumes normally seen in trucking are now showing up on the rails. This shift is likely to keep the intermodal market strong during the surge.
- Trucking Capacity Still Tight
Even though freight volumes have been soft, trucking capacity hasn’t loosened much. The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI), which measures how often trucking companies turn down loads, has stayed close to 5%. This suggests that despite weak demand, capacity is still limited—especially during events like Roadcheck Week, when some carriers take trucks off the road to avoid inspections.
- Roadcheck Week Affects the Market
During International Roadcheck Week, many drivers avoid operating due to strict enforcement, which reduces available capacity. Fuller said this year’s Roadcheck is once again impacting the market—something that hadn’t happened in recent years. Carriers pulled back, brokers struggled to find trucks, and capacity tightened further.
- English Language Rule Could See New Enforcement
A question during the webinar raised concerns about the enforcement of the federal rule requiring truck drivers to speak English. Fuller said enforcement could vary by state, with conservative states likely to take it more seriously. Law enforcement officials have said they’re more willing to enforce this rule under the current administration.
With more imports arriving and freight volumes picking up, the market may be headed for a short-term revival. But uncertainty remains. The 90-day truce is only temporary, and no one knows what trade policies will look like after it ends. For now, though, the freight industry is getting a much-needed breather.
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