Tonnage, Trucking Conditions Indexes Show Continued Stagnation

Freight Market Stays Stuck in Neutral

The U.S. freight market remains sluggish with little sign of recovery, according to the latest data from the American Trucking Associations (ATA) and FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI). While some economic indicators improved in July, others remained flat or declined, leaving trucking volumes caught in a holding pattern.

ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.6% in July following a 0.7% drop in June. Despite this small rebound, tonnage has remained largely unchanged since March. On a year-over-year basis, the index slipped 0.1%, with overall 2025 tonnage still unchanged compared to 2024.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello noted that while freight volumes haven’t dropped significantly, the market is not seeing consistent gains either, creating an uncertain outlook for carriers.

Tonnage Index Highlights

• July tonnage: 113.7, up from 113.0 in June.

• Year-over-year: Down 0.1% compared to July 2024.

• Not seasonally adjusted tonnage: 116.8 in July, 1.9% above June’s 114.6.

• Key drivers: Housing starts and retail sales increased, but manufacturing output was flat or declining.

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index Takes a Hit

FTR reported a sharp drop in its Trucking Conditions Index, which fell to -1.83 in June from 3.56 in May — its strongest reading since October 2022. The decline was driven largely by weaker freight rates and fluctuating fuel prices.

The TCI evaluates five conditions impacting the trucking market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. According to Avery Vise, FTR Vice President of Trucking, the second half of 2025 is expected to be closer to neutral but risks still lean toward the downside.

Industry Analysts Offer Mixed Forecasts

• ACT Research described the situation as “tariff-ying,” pointing to weak carrier profits, limited freight rate traction, and pressure from tariffs.

• ITS Logistics reported modest expansion in July, with the drayage sector recording the second-highest U.S. import volumes ever. However, cost pressures remain high, and freight rates continue to struggle.

• Carriers exiting the market have tightened capacity, but freight rates are still “just barely covering the bills,” according to ITS Chief Commercial Officer Josh Allen.

Outlook for Carriers

While the economy has shown resilience against tariffs and inflationary pressures, the trucking sector remains weighed down by stagnant freight volumes and volatile costs. Analysts say selective opportunities exist, but broad-based recovery is still out of reach.

The overall message for carriers: conditions are volatile, cost pressures remain high, and recovery will take time.

 

Source:

https://www.truckinginfo.com/10246122/tonnage-trucking-conditions-indexes-show-continued-stagnation