Is Trucking Capacity Tighter Than It Looks?

Trucking’s Capacity Might Be Shrinking Faster Than Expected

Recent data shows that the U.S. trucking industry might be closer to a capacity crunch than it appears. According to FTR’s Avery Vise, strict rules on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses, tougher English proficiency enforcement, and rising insurance costs are starting to squeeze the driver pool.

These changes, along with fewer new drivers entering the industry, could trigger a capacity-driven recovery—where reduced supply helps stabilize or increase freight rates.

What the Employment Numbers Reveal

Payroll employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show that trucking jobs are now only 0.4% below pre-pandemic levels, meaning the industry is close to full employment again.

Breaking it down:

• General freight truckload jobs have nearly returned to 2020 levels.

• Less-than-truckload (LTL) jobs remain 4.6% lower, largely due to the 2023 shutdown of Yellow Corp.

• Long-distance specialized trucking, which hadn’t fully recovered since the pandemic, finally surpassed pre-pandemic employment levels in mid-2025.

At first glance, this seems like good news—until you look closer.

The Data May Be Overstating the Real Numbers

Each year, the BLS adjusts its job numbers based on more accurate data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). This year’s preliminary revisions show that trucking employment in March 2025 may actually be 2.3% lower than current BLS estimates.

That’s a loss of about 35,000 jobs—a much larger correction than usual.

In fact, for long-distance specialized trucking, the new data suggests the number of jobs fell 5.3% below what the original BLS numbers showed. That could mean trucking capacity is tightening more quickly than expected, even if it hasn’t shown up in freight rates yet.

Why the Market Still Feels Oversupplied

If jobs are down, why does the market still feel loose? The answer lies with small carriers.

BLS data focuses on payroll employees, which leaves out most owner-operators and small fleets. According to FTR’s analysis of FMCSA registration data, small for-hire carriers with one to five trucks still have about 38% more drivers than before the pandemic.

These small operators have kept freight capacity high, even during a soft market. But as costs rise and enforcement tightens, many may exit the industry—potentially leading to a true capacity correction in the months ahead.

For now, the market may look stable on paper, but beneath the surface, trucking capacity could already be on the verge of tightening.

Source:

https://www.truckinginfo.com/10248823/is-trucking-capacity-tighter-than-it-looks