Confidence is building across the trucking industry that a freight market recovery may arrive sooner than expected. New data shows that fewer carriers are operating, shipping rates are stabilizing, and several economic improvements are setting the stage for a rebound heading into 2026.
Signs That the Market Is Tightening
Recent numbers from GenLogs show a noticeable decline in active trucking carriers — a signal that the industry may be entering the next phase of the freight cycle.
-
Active carriers dropped 5% in the week ending Nov. 5.
-
Between Oct. 1 and Oct. 31, there was a 7.3% decrease.
-
Smaller carriers with 1–10 trucks declined by 0.83% in October.
-
AI-powered tracking cameras along major highways detected fewer trucks operating under registered DOT numbers.
This decrease in capacity means fewer trucks are available, which can eventually lead to higher freight rates and better market balance.
The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index also supports this trend:
-
Shipment volume fell 2.9% in Q3 2025, but shipper spending increased.
-
Shippers are paying more to move less freight, showing that demand is beginning to outpace supply.
Small Fleets Show Renewed Optimism
A recent survey by Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence found growing optimism among small carriers:
-
80% of the 211 carriers surveyed operate five or fewer trucks.
-
Many believe freight demand has bottomed out and are preparing for improvement.
-
While rates remain flat, most fleets are showing resilience and adaptability.
Todd Markusic, Customer Insights Manager at Truckstop.com, noted that while conditions remain tough, “many carriers believe better days are ahead.”
Economic Factors Supporting the Recovery
Several macroeconomic changes are creating a more favorable environment for trucking:
-
Federal Reserve rate cuts are reducing borrowing costs for fleets.
-
Trade clarity between the U.S. and China is easing supply chain uncertainty.
-
The end of the federal government shutdown has helped restore business confidence.
Seth Runser, CEO-elect of ArcBest, said the company expects an upturn by early 2026, supported by improving market fundamentals.
KCH Transportation compared the current state to preparing a meal:
“The ingredients for recovery are being assembled — capacity is tightening, and demand is building.”
As weaker operators exit the market, the remaining carriers are expected to benefit from higher freight rates once demand rebounds.
Freight Rates and Near-Term Outlook
Even though the recovery isn’t fully here yet, rate stability is a positive sign:
-
Dry van rates are averaging $2 per mile, steady for three consecutive weeks.
-
Refrigerated freight (reefer) rates dipped slightly to $2.08 per mile.
Analysts note that temporary challenges — like the suspension of SNAP benefits affecting grocery shipments — may cause short-term dips, but overall confidence remains strong.
After an unusually long freight downturn that has lasted nearly twice the normal 14–15-month cycle, trucking experts agree that the foundation for recovery is now firmly in place.
Source:
Leave a Comment