Why Do Truckload Order Lead Times Keep Rising?

 

Truckload order lead times have been increasing for several years, and 2025 continued that trend. Below is an easier-to-read breakdown of what’s happening, why it matters, and what it could mean heading into 2026.

📈 Truckload Lead Times Are Still Climbing

• Average truckload tender lead times increased 7.3% year over year in 2025

• Lead times reached 3.63 days, up from 3.38 days in 2024

• Compared to 2019, lead times are now 39% higher

• This marks the sixth straight year shippers have given carriers more advance notice

Why this matters:
Longer lead times help carriers plan equipment positioning and driver schedules more efficiently, reducing last-minute disruptions.

🚛 What Is a Tender Lead Time?

• Tender lead time measures the gap between:
  • When a shipper requests capacity

  • And the scheduled pickup date

• Example:
  • Load tendered on January 5

  • Pickup scheduled for January 9

  • Lead time = 4 days

• The industry sweet spot is typically 3 to 6 days

📊 Shippers Are Planning Better Than Before

• Shippers are forecasting freight movements more accurately

• Earlier tendering helps:
  • Lock in capacity

  • Reduce spot market exposure

  • Improve service reliability

• This is a major shift from pre-pandemic years, when excess capacity led to shorter lead times

🎄 Seasonal and Market Factors Play a Role

Lead times don’t move for just one reason. They often increase due to:

• Holiday planning (Thanksgiving and Christmas)

• Anticipated capacity disruptions

• Risk management strategies

They can also shrink quickly when:

• Demand spikes unexpectedly

• Freight surges hit the market with little warning

❌ How Rejection Rates Fit In

• Tender rejection rates show how often carriers decline contracted loads

• Capacity signals:
  • Below 5% = abundant capacity

  • Above 9% = tight market and rising spot rates

• Average rejection rates:
  • 2023: ~3.85%

  • 2024: just under 5%

  • 2025: just over 6%

Key insight:
Rejection rates rose modestly, but lead times jumped more sharply—suggesting shippers may now expect longer planning windows as the new normal.

🌍 Trade and Inventory Shifts Also Impact Lead Times

• Trade tensions and tariff uncertainty pushed shippers to:
  • Pull imports forward

  • Build inventory earlier

• This created:
  • More time to move freight domestically

  • Increased intermodal usage

  • Softer demand for long-haul truckload freight

• Result: Longer staging times and extended lead times

🔮 What to Watch Going Into 2026

• Inventory levels appear to be stabilizing

• If demand slows or buffers shrink:
  • Lead times could compress again

• However:
  • Holiday demand exceeded expectations

  • One strong season does not guarantee a lasting trend

• Lead times in 2026 will depend on:
  • Freight demand

  • Capacity balance

  • Economic and trade conditions

 

Source:

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-do-truckload-order-lead-times-keep-rising