Truckload Volumes Continue to Slide

A “Long, Cool Shadow” Over Holiday Shipping

DAT’s October 2025 report paints a troubling picture: truckload demand is weakening just as peak retail season should be ramping up.

For the first time this year, the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) fell month-over-month and year-over-year across all equipment types:

• Dry Van TVI: 232 (down 3% from September, down 11% YoY)

• Reefer TVI: 184 (down 2% MoM, down 7% YoY)

• Flatbed TVI: 305 (down 4% MoM, down 3% YoY)

DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo explained that shippers are relying on inventory frontloaded earlier in the year to hedge against tariffs and weak consumer spending. As a result, the traditional holiday shipping surge is “virtually non-existent” in 2025.

Spot Rates Inch Up Despite Weak Demand

Even as volumes decline, tighter capacity pushed spot rates slightly higher last month:

October National Average Spot Rates

• Van: $2.07/mile (up 2 cents)

• Reefer: $2.48/mile (up 4 cents)

• Flatbed: $2.51/mile (up 1 cent)

All three are higher than October 2024 levels, evidence that shrinking capacity—driven by carrier exits and financial strain—is beginning to influence pricing.

October National Average Contract Rates

• Van: $2.42/mile (unchanged 3 months straight)

• Reefer: $2.78/mile (up 2 cents)

• Flatbed: $3.09/mile (up 3 cents)

DAT Chief Scientist Chris Caplice says shippers appear cautious: while it remains a buyer’s market, many companies are prioritizing reliable, financially stable carriers over shaving off a few cents on new contract bids.

ATA: Freight Activity Hits Lowest Level Since January

ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index confirms the same downward trend.

• October tonnage fell 2.1%, following a 0.8% decline in September.

• The index dropped from 114.3 in September to 111.9 in October.

• Year-over-year, tonnage fell 1.8%, the largest decline of 2025.

• Year-to-date tonnage is now flat compared to 2024.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said October’s results mark the biggest monthly drop since January 2024, underscoring how tough the freight environment remains.

The not-seasonally-adjusted tonnage index, which reflects actual shipping volumes, rose slightly to 119.2 in October, but only because of seasonal freight, not genuine market strength.

What It Means for the Freight Market

Together, the DAT and ATA reports show a freight market still struggling with:

• Oversupplied capacity

• Weak consumer spending

• Tariff-related stockpiling earlier in the year

• Declining industrial output

• Financial stress causing carrier exits

Spot rates creeping upward hint at a possible future tightening, but with volumes at multi-year lows and peak retail season fizzling, the freight recession continues to place pressure on both carriers and shippers.

The outlook: continued volatility, reduced demand, and more carriers leaving the market as 2025 closes out.

 

Source:

https://www.truckinginfo.com/10250795/truckload-volumes-continue-to-slide