As the trucking industry heads into 2026, many fleets are asking the same question: will stricter FMCSA enforcement reduce trucking capacity? In 2025, the Trump administration rolled out several driver-focused enforcement actions aimed at improving safety and compliance. While these changes are significant, industry analysts say their impact on capacity is likely to be gradual rather than immediate.
Driver Enforcement Changes Introduced in 2025
The administration tightened oversight in several areas that directly affect commercial drivers and owner-operators, including:
- Pausing certain work visas for foreign drivers
- Stepping up enforcement of English-language proficiency requirements
- Cracking down on non-domiciled CDLs
- Removing thousands of noncompliant driver training schools
- Strengthening electronic logging device (ELD) enforcement
Some advocacy groups argue these measures could worsen the driver shortage, noting that foreign-born drivers make up a sizable portion of the workforce. However, most trucking analysts do not see an immediate capacity crisis tied to these changes.
What Industry Analysts Are Saying
Experts largely agree that no single enforcement action will dramatically reduce trucking capacity. Instead, the combined effect of these policies may slowly tighten the market over time.
- C.H. Robinson says the rules add pressure on owner-operators, who make up the majority of U.S. carriers, and may discourage new entrants.
- Stifel analysts believe the non-domiciled CDL crackdown is the most impactful, potentially affecting a low double-digit share of the long-haul market.
- Other initiatives, such as English-language enforcement and tighter driver school oversight, are expected to have slower, long-term effects.
Stifel also noted that these regulatory changes could influence shipper contract negotiations in 2026, helping support stronger freight rates earlier in the year.
Training Programs and ELDs Could Matter More
According to FTR Transportation Intelligence’s Avery Vise, English-language enforcement alone is unlikely to significantly reduce capacity. Instead, he pointed to two other areas with greater potential impact:
- ELD enforcement, which removes noncompliant drivers and fleets from the road
- The shutdown of weak driver training programs, which limits the pipeline of new drivers
These combined changes could make it harder for fleets to add drivers quickly once freight demand improves.
The “Driver Shortage” Conversation Is Changing
The long-running debate over a driver shortage has shifted in recent years. During the freight downturn, excess capacity replaced concerns about too few drivers.
In 2025, ATA President Chris Spear clarified that the issue is not a lack of CDL holders, but a lack of drivers who meet professional and safety standards. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy echoed this view, stating he does not believe the U.S. lacks truck drivers, but rather that enforcement has allowed unqualified drivers to operate.
What This Means for 2026
Overall, analysts expect FMCSA’s driver-focused enforcement to slowly tighten capacity rather than cause sudden disruptions. As freight demand recovers, these rules may play a bigger role in shaping trucking capacity, driver availability, and rate momentum throughout 2026.
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