Freight shortage?

Government spending is by far the biggest driver of inflation but inflation is when too much money is chasing too few goods so other factors play in as well. Although for sure government spending is by far the largest.

 

Every recruiter with every company will tell you that you can make $100k. Has anyone actually made what the recruiter told them they could make? Every trucking job out there is advertising that you can make $100k a year but only 1% of the industry actually makes that.

 

Nobody cares about 3 or 4 years from now. They're only concerned about their quarterly reports to their shareholders.

 

I disagree, there are multiple factors that cause prices to go up. Like actual labor shortages. There's a reason your plumber now costs more than your doctor and a plumber averages $250k a year while a truck driver averages $47k a year. Perhaps we should have been plumbers huh? Then again if we all did that then a plumber would only be worth $47k a year and your plumbing would be dirt cheap like your current freight rates.

 

Yeah, the oilfield is dead now

 

Hey, it's another economics/finance nerd. Sir, I like your style and will conquer with your observations.

 

I will check used truck listings in awhile. I think those are another good indicator. Is it a buyers market or a sellers market for used tractors. In 2015 fuel prices were stupid high. I was putting over $700 into the tractors fuel tanks everyday. Everyone else at the truck stop was doing the same thing. I struck up conversations at the truck stop to figure out if it was just me or if it was a thing. I was averaging 6.5 mpg which all the old timers out on the road said was good. Anyhow, I looked into buying a truck and got absolutely overwhelmed with people looking to sell their tractors! That actually scared me away from it although it probably shouldn't have. I could have bought an absolutely gorgeous Pete 379 or KW W900 with a big CAT for $40k. Some of the most beautiful custom like show trucks that some old timer absolutely babied for years for $40k to $50k. I had a couple guys offer to throw in trailers! For $50k I could have driven away a custom W900 with a very expensive looking custom paint job with a crazy custom looking reefer trailer that matched. The seller was over 80 years old and said his wife wanted him off the road and insisted he just get rid of that darn thing. The thing is I was running into alot of those! That absolutely scared me away. There had to be a reason so many people were absolutely desperate to get rid of their trucks. Today those same $50k trucks are selling for over $100k. I've seen a few over $200k. That was for the pretty trucks. At that time if you were on a budget and didn't care to be fancy used Volvo's and Freightshakers with gutless motors and 10 speeds could be bought for $20k to $30k all day. Although had I pulled the trigger back then I would have had to survive for just 1 more year in a tough market and would right now be breaking necks at the truck stop with a beautiful tractor and trailer both paid off that I could probably turn around and sell for over $100k.

Who knows? Maybe I will get the opportunity again.

However if the market gets flooded with cheap used tractors that's a good indicator that we're in trouble at least for awhile. Although it could be an opportunity for someone looking to get into the business. You could be like one of the investors who bought up properties after the 2008 crash who are now multimillionaires. That's another thing to look out for. Are big companies buying out smaller companies? Investors absolutely love recessions because they can buy up assets for pennies on the dollar. Big business also loves it because they're able to consume their struggling smaller competitors and expand their market share. So look out for Swift and JB Hunt gobbling up smaller companies.