Rates are crashing and fuel to the moon!

He been pushing a lot of BS on X here lately. I normally like some of his takes but this and last year he been off a lot at least in my area that I have been running. I seen the dip before he even said a thing and than seen a rise as he said it was going to be a dip. All depends on what a person runs. Overall picture he may be right.

 

This is just thinking out loud and only time will tell. But with the new English proficiency EO and fmcsa is going to begin enforcing it in June I wonder what effect that will have. I read somewhere that 10% of drivers out here are in violation of this. If 10% of the capacity disappears in the next two months that would have a huge impact on rates. Particularly spot market rates.

maybe it’s pie in the sky or maybe it will have an effect. Idk… just noticed this guy didn’t even mention it in his gloomy forecast

 

So maybe ICE will be setting up with the DOT boys?

 

maybe
But in the meantime, the tariffs mean less inbound intermodal so every port jockey will be out slashing rates in new territory
Just my humble opinion

 

Perhaps. Certainly some portion will without a doubt. But most of those guys are leased to a drayage company. It will be difficult for them to pivot. Especially the ones that are running clapped out day cabs. In the southern ports I see more of them going to hauling logs out of the woods. Loggers are about the only ones that will put them to work. Some may go to pulling mulch, and lumber or shingles. It will be bottom barrel freight.

 

I don’t know. I think most have a work permit of some sort. But if you take away the work then I don’t see where they have much reason to stay. Honestly I don’t think they want to stay. They are just here for the money.

 

The English proficiency EO is going to have little to no effect on capacity.

For the moment, let's assume that 10% of drivers don't have English proficiency. I don't believe that's true, but let's assume it and that it holds true at every company.

According to SAFER, Schneider logged 886,376,021 miles with 9,959 power units in 2024. During that time they were inspected 7,354 times - or roughly once every 120,529 miles. By power unit, Schneider gets inspected once every 89,000 miles.

Roberts is a small company out of central Wisconsin. They have 14 power units which logged 1,001,480 miles in 2022 (last year reported). They had 3 inspections, or 1 inspection every 333,826 miles. Or 1 inspection every 71,534 miles per power unit.

What are the chances that the one Roberts driver that can't pass a English proficiency test gets inspected? Or the 1,000 or so Schneider drivers? Slim to none. In 14 years I've been inspected maybe 6 times. If a driver is running legal weights and has all his lights working it's unlikely that he will be inspected. If he's not inspected, then there's zero chance of his lack of English proficiency being detected.

But let's say he does get inspected and put out of service. As far as I'm aware, once the 'defect' has been rectified, the vehicle is allowed to move. What's to stop the driver from just waiting until the weigh station closes and then driving off? He's probably got another 100,000 miles before he's inspected again.

All that's before we answer the question "what is English proficiency?"

If you take a deep dive into my posting history, I've posted extensively about the number of cdl holders who have come onto my truck that can't communicate in English and my battles with middle management who care more about their metrics than safety and service. A couple of years ago I was asked to take a 'fully qualified driver' for a week to 'polish up his skills'. Dude had 6 months on the road solo, albeit with multiple incidents - none of which were properly written up because none of the Driver Managers/Safety Critters wanted to damage their metrics. The DM and the Regional Safety Critter wanted the guy gone before I took him, but because he'd transferred into the account and the previous DM/Safety Critter didn't write things up properly we couldn't just fire him. One of the big issues he had is that his English was conversationally good, his comprehension was poor. He could communicate well enough that I didn't think it was going to be an issue the first day. Keep the vocab simple, speak slowly and clearly, and avoid unnecessary conversation. It makes for a long week, but I've had much worse. As the week went on it was obvious that he wasn't understanding what I was telling him. If I said "Do XXX because of YYY", he'd do XXX, but he wouldn't understand the reasoning behind it, so he wouldn't learn anything.

On Wednesday I said "dude can't do the job" and was asked to take him for another week - by the Regional Manager. It took me emailing the VP for Safety and Training directly to get the guy fired. All because metrics trumped common sense. If his English was better, I probably could have cleaned up his skills. I have no doubt that this individual is currently on the road and that his English skills will be able to pass an inspection (provided his vehicle passes).

That's a long way of saying "even if he gets inspected there's no guarantee he gets put OOS".

TLDR - this E.O. is window dressing to the base that won't do anything.

What will do something is to have DOT set up outside of a Walmart or Amazon DC doing 30 second spot checks of every truck leaving. One officer does a quick log/license check while a second officer thumps tires and checks lights. If everything looks above board, driver gets sent on his way. Any quibbles, officers keep his license and directs him to an area set up for Level 1s. If the truck doesn't show up, arrest warrant is issued for felony flight and the Motor Carrier is shut down. But that's never going to happen.

 

If they have a CDL, they're in the country legally so ICE has no jurisdiction.

 

It’s been 9 years since the EO to stop enforcing it. I think everyone can agree that it has had a negative impact on the industry. Particularly the spot market( because that’s where these guys thrive). So I’m extrapolating that since stopping the enforcement has caused a huge change if we went back to enforcement it would like wise have an impact.

even a 5% decrease in the number of available trucks has potential to make huge swings in freight rates. Particularly in the midwestern states. Which seems to especially be suffering right now

 

ICE absolutely has jurisdiction if it's within our borders. They may or may not be here legally. I don't believe for a moment that all cdl holders are here legally, or obtained their cdl by abiding by all the rules.