FMCSA just dropped an interim final rule that took effect Sept 29, 2025. No more CDLs for asylum seekers, refugees, TPS, or DACA drivers, even if they’ve got work permits. The only categories technically left are H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visas — but Trump already paused those visas for trucking, so in reality it’s now green card holders and citizens only.
Here’s the part that’s going to sting: FMCSA found states like California and Washington handing out non-domiciled CDLs good for 2–4 years (way past what the law allows). Those are going to get targeted and downgraded right away. For everyone else, licenses will die off at renewal — FMCSA says about 200,000 of these CDLs are out there, and 50–70k will come up for renewal by year-end.
What does that mean? Tens of thousands of drivers are going to be forced out over the next 6–12 months, with no replacements coming in. That’s going to cut capacity and push rates up, especially in markets that leaned on immigrant drivers (CA ports, Midwest flatbed, produce lanes). By mid 2026, we could be looking at a serious crunch like 2018 or even 2021.
Capacity crunch incoming
Discussion in 'Ask An Owner Operator' started by kay_ray, Sep 26, 2025 at 7:03 PM.
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Good
Opendeckin, hope not dumb twucker, M22 rockcrusher and 9 others Thank this. -
Perfect timing to get my truck back on the road
BoostedTeg, Opendeckin, hope not dumb twucker and 8 others Thank this. -
Meh. They’ll keep on driving, until they’re caught during an inspection, arrested, and deported. And, that’s highly unlikely, because they have PrePass and/or blow scales, anyway. If they’re not digitally photographed, flagged, and deported, they’ll just come back in under another name, get put back into a truck, and sent back out on the road, without a CDL. These people have proven, US laws mean nothing to them.
hope not dumb twucker, M22 rockcrusher, Siinman and 7 others Thank this. -
The 200,000 drivers removed in 2 years. Thats not many people removed.
The CDL mills will replace those just as quick as they are removed.
This is an article from last year. I didn't see much of an uptick in rates from these drivers being removed. About the same number were removed.
179,000 CDLs risk being downgraded or revoked for drug or alcohol violationsM22 rockcrusher, OldeSkool, D.Tibbitt and 1 other person Thank this. -
It is the same rules that have been out there for over a decade. Nothing has changed.
What they are doing is giving those that violated the rules TWO whole Years to straighten up.
So, no crunch is coming.hope not dumb twucker, M22 rockcrusher and D.Tibbitt Thank this. -
Eh, I got no confidence in seeing anything remotely effective. Rates are complete dog crap now and getting worse every day.
Don’t even know when my last inspection was..
It’s good news indeed but I’m skeptical it’ll take that many off the road to make a difference. Of all the non domiciled cdls..and who knows really how many are out there since states like Florida don’t keep track..and they give out a ton.
I’m betting a great many are doing everything right so let’s give it time to gauge the effectiveness.
As far as capacity imo it’ll be a wash with all the drivers now having difficulty finding a job.
Lastly you may want to add HB-3 visas to your list.hope not dumb twucker, M22 rockcrusher, Siinman and 2 others Thank this. -
hope not dumb twucker, M22 rockcrusher, Concorde and 1 other person Thank this.
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I just saw the press conference. Their starting with ca. They have 30 days then millions of dollars in hwy funds with be withheld. I expect newsom to take it to court
Opendeckin, hope not dumb twucker, M22 rockcrusher and 1 other person Thank this. -
They also said non domiciled drivers that are already in aren't affected, if I understood it
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