Capacity crunch incoming

Discussion in 'Ask An Owner Operator' started by kay_ray, Sep 26, 2025 at 7:03 PM.

  1. kay_ray

    kay_ray Medium Load Member

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    FMCSA just dropped an interim final rule that took effect Sept 29, 2025. No more CDLs for asylum seekers, refugees, TPS, or DACA drivers, even if they’ve got work permits. The only categories technically left are H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visas — but Trump already paused those visas for trucking, so in reality it’s now green card holders and citizens only.

    Here’s the part that’s going to sting: FMCSA found states like California and Washington handing out non-domiciled CDLs good for 2–4 years (way past what the law allows). Those are going to get targeted and downgraded right away. For everyone else, licenses will die off at renewal — FMCSA says about 200,000 of these CDLs are out there, and 50–70k will come up for renewal by year-end.

    What does that mean? Tens of thousands of drivers are going to be forced out over the next 6–12 months, with no replacements coming in. That’s going to cut capacity and push rates up, especially in markets that leaned on immigrant drivers (CA ports, Midwest flatbed, produce lanes). By mid 2026, we could be looking at a serious crunch like 2018 or even 2021.
     
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  3. D.Tibbitt

    D.Tibbitt Road Train Member

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    Perfect timing to get my truck back on the road :biggrin_255:
     
  4. ducnut

    ducnut Road Train Member

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    Meh. They’ll keep on driving, until they’re caught during an inspection, arrested, and deported. And, that’s highly unlikely, because they have PrePass and/or blow scales, anyway. If they’re not digitally photographed, flagged, and deported, they’ll just come back in under another name, get put back into a truck, and sent back out on the road, without a CDL. These people have proven, US laws mean nothing to them.
     
  5. xsetra

    xsetra Road Train Member

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  6. Toomanybikes

    Toomanybikes Road Train Member

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    It is the same rules that have been out there for over a decade. Nothing has changed.

    What they are doing is giving those that violated the rules TWO whole Years to straighten up.

    So, no crunch is coming.
     
  7. Concorde

    Concorde Road Train Member

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    Eh, I got no confidence in seeing anything remotely effective. Rates are complete dog crap now and getting worse every day.

    Don’t even know when my last inspection was..

    It’s good news indeed but I’m skeptical it’ll take that many off the road to make a difference. Of all the non domiciled cdls..and who knows really how many are out there since states like Florida don’t keep track..and they give out a ton.
    I’m betting a great many are doing everything right so let’s give it time to gauge the effectiveness.
    As far as capacity imo it’ll be a wash with all the drivers now having difficulty finding a job.

    Lastly you may want to add HB-3 visas to your list.
     
  8. Constant Learner

    Constant Learner Heavy Load Member

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    Who is going to enforce it, there's no law enforcement anymore.
     
  9. snicrep

    snicrep Road Train Member

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    I just saw the press conference. Their starting with ca. They have 30 days then millions of dollars in hwy funds with be withheld. I expect newsom to take it to court
     
  10. snicrep

    snicrep Road Train Member

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    They also said non domiciled drivers that are already in aren't affected, if I understood it
     
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