Trucking industry capacity crunch incoming

I just returned to OTR after a hiatus and it seems to me that more weigh stations are closed than normal. Seems like many states do want to have to deal with the ELP enforcement

 

States maybe… DOT not really, they want to sit on their ### and eat cheeseburgers all day long.
I’ve been doing OTR for past 3 years. I’d say nothing changed about weight stations.

 

A lot has changed for the past 3 years. 2 weigh stations permanently closed near me, others are rarely open. And I see many trucks just
ignoring open stations with no consequences for them.

 

Okay, Gang.....have LOTS OF fun with this one (I haven't seen where it was posted elsewhere):

Largest capacity purge in history coming

-- L

 

The main comment I have on the article is that simply increasing wages and / or bonuses will NOT be enough tp attract drivers into the industry in adequate numbers.

The working conditions have to change. The industry "three weeks out, three days home" model aruns off anyone with a life outside of trucking. Home time, rest schedules, vacation schedules, etc will all be under tremendous pressure if carriers want to attract and retain non-immigrant drivers.

 

My first thought is this is an article by Craig Fuller, administration sycophant. This is evidenced by him taking JB Hunt's estimate of the non-domiciled cdl and ELP changes (214,000–437,000 drivers) and adding FMCSA's estimate to get to his 600K number.

Last year we were warned that 150,000 drivers were going to 'leave the industry' over SAP issues. I'm sure that 150,000 licenses were downgraded, but how many of them were being actively used? So how many of the supposed 600k drivers impacted are even driving?

Approximately 400,000 cdls are issued every year. Approximately 300,000 drivers leave the industry every year. The math indicates it won't take long for any 'driver shortage' to get filled. In 2021 companies were offering crazy recruitment bonuses, now megas are cutting entry level pay rates. Even lossing 600k isn't going to make a dent. Particularly when freight volume is down 18% year over year and it doesn't look like improvement is on the horizon. IP and Westrock have both significantly cut their cardboard production and Class 8 truck sales are down 30% on the year. Despite the massive amounts of small carriers (50-200 trucks) leaving the market, truck stops are still full every night - heck even the Janesville, WI weigh station has 15-20 trucks parked in it every week night.

But let's say Craig's estimates are correct and 20% of active drivers leave. Carriers aren't going to raise pay - they're going to get the interstate age lowered to 18. This will provide the new drivers needed to sustain the industry model and deal with rising unemployment among young men. Or autonomous trucks will get pushed out on the road before they're truly ready.

 

The 18 year old driver thing is never going to fly. There's no interest in it and who could blame young people for not wanting to enter this low paying life sacrificing Industry. Insurance is another reason. Insurance rates are high under an ordinary drivers license until a person turns 25 years old then they start gradually declining. Most trucking companies, even self insured megas, won't touch anyone under 23. There's a logical reason for that. Younger drivers have more accidents/incidents and cost more. Now somebody might have the most mature 18 year old kid in the world but unfortunately for them that's the exception not the rule. It's a non starter. As far the non domiciled, the sooner those people get axed out of the industry the better. All of them, now. 600,000 or whatever the number is.

 

Never underestimate what a corporation would do if the government gave them “incentives” to do it.

That said, I’d trust an 18 year old farm kid that’s already been driving a truck a couple years more than a 40 year old fresh out of a proper driving school who’s never driven anything larger than their car.

Edit: Doing away with the requirement to be 21 doesn’t necessarily mean 18 year olds would be running all over. But it would open the door for them to at least haul interstate loads if they were doing local shag truck work.

 

I would trust that kid too but unfortunately for him he's an outlier. The insurance companies know this that's why nobody wants cdl drivers until they're 23.

 

The entry level training stuff has done away with most of the young farm kids wanting to drive for a living. Why jump through all the hoops for a CDL when they can keep driving their own farm trucks without one?