North Dakota "Bubble"?

So, do you think the current rates and demand in ND are a "bubble" that will burst soon?

I have read some opinions that the oil companies will soon be slowing everything down in order to get the prices under control. With all of the publicity and the number of trucks heading up there, it seems that the shortage of trucks and the high rates might possibly be coming to an end - especially for owner operators?

I have also spoken with people who believe that we are still early on for demand and it will coninue to increase. If that is the case, perhaps the demand will remain and the rates will stay high?

It looks to me like there will be demand there in the long term as long as crude prices stay high and the EPA doesn't shut things down, but as more trucks arrive to meet the demand, it seems that the "bubble" might burst.

So what do you think? Is it a good time to head to the Bakken as an OO or not (as far as rates and work go).

 

Also, what do you see as far as demand for particular trucks in the near future? Will there be a greater need for water, frac sand, gravel, or something else?

If you were heading up there next month, would you take a vac trailer, pneumatic trailer, belly dump, or something else (assuming that you could find what you wanted)?

 

I can handle the cold alright - worked in it before. I'm just worried about getting up there as the bubble breaks.

I have a friend who is trying to put 5 more water trucks on right now, but I know another guy who has 4 water trucks leased on with another company that are bareley getting any work. He was real busy in the srping and early summer, but now he can't keep them busy. There are lots of variables, but I'm just not sure what to make of it.

 

Thanks for the input.

I know there is a huge housing problem, and I know that booms go bust. I think I can deal with that part of it.

What I am concerned about is that there may be an oversupply of trucks building up so that even though there are a lot of loads, there are even more trucks, and the rates will bottom out and the hours/loads and rates will drop even though the the demand remains steady.

If I am looking at it correctly, in order to have an increase in demand for water and frac sand trucks, there needs to be an increase in the number of rigs drilling (not just and increase in wells). Otherwise, the demand will remain pretty constant and the additional trucks will create a surplus.

It seems that last year everyone could get all the hours/loads they wanted, but I'm not sure that is the case now. Can anyone who is hauling there now shed a little light on this?