Eaton transmissions and the future..

no they won't drop eaton, eaton will still have a strong market share, and eaton makes automatics as well. but as more and more fleets move to all automatics, the used market will shift to far more automatics on the market than manuals. eventually people will learn to accept automatics, and far less trucks will be ordered that way. then eventually certain models of trucks the manual will interfere with there design and they will choose to just not offer that truck with a manual transmission as only 5% of there sales will be with manuals anyway.

i am a die hard manual transmission guy and want nothing to do with automatics. every car i owned up into the 2000's was a manual transmission then it just started getting to hard to find what i wanted with a manual and i bought my first ever pickup with a automatic, now pretty much all my cars are automatics not because i like it just because that's whats out there in the used market. at this point i think dodge is the only one that still offers a manual transmission pickup and it has to be custom ordered.

of course im not saying any of this is going to be anytime soon. the truck market resists change more than anything. but 60 years from now im sure automatics will be the norm in trucking.

i have only spent one day in my trucking career in a automatic truck and i hated every second of it. but i am sure in 60 years from now the technology will come a long ways as well.

 

I just think its way different in this industry. You and I like total control of the truck and wouldn't have it any other way but I see your point. Once people like you and I are dead and gone, these new edge non truck drivers will be the standard and probably will be no market for transmissions require skill to shift. So recapping on the original post of the thread starter, I guess there will indeed be no manual trans in 40 years

 

Strictly speaking Eaton automatics, they don't have the reliability yet to push the trend to fully automatic. Parts are more money and diagnostics are expensive. Like one poster said, many fleets do see advantages in fuel savings and drive-line longevity, but for the majority of the professional O/O, manuals are still extremely popular.

 

they're both gonna be gone to electric drives and no transmission at all. the auto is taking over but will be short lived.

 

Remember that the fuel saving of a auto/auto manual is on a improvement with a poor to average drive. They offer no gains for a experience driver that know when and how to shift.

 

The Eaton 'automated manual' or 'automatic' is just a manual transmission with a computer, wire harness, actuator, brakes, solenoids. It is just an automated manual and therefore the manual will not disappear. (at least from eaton's design)

Unless some drastic new technology comes along, the manual is not going to disappear. That technology will resemble something more like the Tesla then the current crop of 'automatics.'

We are in a current upswing where cunning salesmanship has convinced mega-crap fleets to pay a premium for the extra gizmos added onto a manual to make an automatic. When the used truck marked is saturated with 'automatics' left over from the mega, when the actual repair and maintenance cost are accrued, the manual will again make headway back into the larger fleets.

 

Manuals will be around forever.

With that said, Im really worried that one of the transmission makers for big trucks will adopt the infinite belt drive transmission in a heavy class 8 tractor trailer. It would be so annoying, with that thing revving up and down constantly chasing the infinite perfect ratio...

 

Just bought the new truck recently and when shopping the spec around, both Mack and Volvo charged extra to get a manual in the truck. Ended up going with International.

 

Mack and Volvo share transnission.

M-drive is just I-shift painder with other paint.

But yes, Volvo, Daimler, Scania and MAN offer only autos

Volvo-Mack-Renault got Volvo I-shift

Freightliner has Mercedes EPS-3 transmission with Detroit logo.

MAN, Paccar and other use to fit ZF As-Tronic.

Manual available for extra money