The Near Future of Over the Road Trucking

Here's a little suggestion....ignore the talking heads......the economy will turn around...it always does.....

 

so what do you adjust when your checks aren't covering rent,electric and food?

 

Work more, work harder, move, get another job ect.... don't sit there and whine....
News Flash.....Obama and Pelosi won't save you....It's your job to look after yourself...it's called living in a Democracy....If you wait for the "One" to solve your problems....you'll be in the ground cold and long forgotten....

 

+1

It seems as though people in this country no longer believe in rolling there sleeves and working hard. Too many people are looking for that handout.

 

If you cant cover those things then its time for a new job or career. My bills are paid every month.

 

Good question. And one that worries me. (i have 15 yrs experience, by the way)

1) Number of drivers vs. number of jobs:

No matter how bad things get, i think that there is always going to be a shortage of people willing to stay away from family/home for long periods of time and live in a fiberglass box under "rugged" (to say the least) living conditions etc. etc.

So, i don't think there is any way, assuming you have a reasonable/good MVR, DAC and work history that you couldn't find an OTR job at any time. It may not be with the company you really want to work for, but i think you'll always be able to find a long distance driving job.

2) 2000 miles per week is the new average. (kind of ties in with #1 above)

This does concern me---alot. However, i think( and hope) that this is temporary;
i feel that a good indicator is how crowded the truckstops are and how many trucks are on the road. And not just how many trucks on the road, but what types and how many trucks of a particular company are on the road.

a) First off, i've been noticing that ,as usual, monday thru thursday, that truckstops are jam packed at night and if you arrive after say 9pm, your chances of finding a parking space are hit or miss. (usually miss). Now, yes, we do not know if some of these trucks have been parked for more than 10 hrs due to lack of freight and i'll address this in a sec.

i've also been noticing that, even compared to when things were "good" 4,5, 10 yrs ago, that the truckstops on the weekends are usually also jam packed. Again, we do not know nessesarily, how long these trucks have been parked. However, i was at the "Whites truckstop" on I-81 mm 205 in Virginia saturday night and when i woke up at 10am sunday morning a good chunk, at least 50% of the trucks were gone.

b) One solution to the mileage problem is to hire less drivers and utilize less tractors on a company to company basis. Now, this does mean less available jobs temporarily. So, yes, you got me on point one. But i still feel this is temporary.
However, being that most drivers want to go home on a regular basis, the company still needs the flexibilty that more vs. less drivers provide and therefore the company can't operate "comfortably" with a skeleton crew so, yes, maybe 2000 miles as a weekly average will be with us for a while.

Incidentally, i should have about 2400 miles next week unless there is a load cancellation.

c) Number of trucks on the road:
i've noticed more trucks on the road in general as compared to february when i got called back in to work.

d) Types of trucks on the road:
i've noticed more flatbeds on the road in general as compared to february when back then it was very rare to see one and if i did it was usually empty.
One thing that is still rare is new car-carriers; If i see one, it usually has used cars on it.

e) Number of each companies trucks on the road; If you see a large number of a certain company's trucks on the road, this could indicate certain trends. It looks like the LTL companies, certain ones at least, are doing ok----UPS freight and UPS regular. There were a few OTR trucks i saw over the weekend that had several of one company but i can't remember their names. Of course, there were several Schneiders and Swifts just on I-81 but i'm not talking about those.

3) The railroads:

i actually, personally, like the idea of intermodal, but i don't think a significant (or at least not more than what already is going on the rails) portion of freight is going to the rails anytime soon.

What proof do i have? None; i just don't "feel" that it will anytime soon.

The rail ifrastructure just is not set up, right now, for speed.



So the whole problem really worries me and i don't know what the solution is. i don't have a family so i do have the flexibility to move anywhere/anytime, but will the jobs at the other place be any better than what i have now?

 

Continued:

3am this morning NJ turnpike rest plazas 5, 7, 8a all had an overflowsion (new word) of trucks spilling out on to the on and offramps.

If we're in a ressesion it sure doesn't look like it from a truck-landscape point of view.

 

1) 12am weds Breezwood petro choc-full.
a) Most Ohio truckstops east of Columbus last night on I-70 choc-full with trucks overflowing onto on ramps AND off ramps.

i don't nessesarily state that due to the number of trucks observed on the road we are definitely not in a ressession. What i'm trying to imply is that i feel that the number of trucks observed would be a good indication of the condition of the economy. And, based on my observations, i feel that things are getting better as compared to say 3 or 4 months ago.


2) RE: too many drivers vs. miles:
i did hear that JB hunt stated that they only need each truck to run a small number of miles each day for each truck to turn a profit. i don't remember the exact figure---probably 200 or under. This, of course, is unfortunate for the driver.

However, as stated in my previous post, my theory has been that the trucking company needs the flexibility of a certain number of drivers within a certain proximity of each other---say under 300 miles of each other. In this way pickups and deliveries(or relays if needed) can be made quickly. This provides a service advantage over competitors.
Again, unfortunate for the driver.

 

1) Actually let's revisit the whole "new Jersey/insanity" point because i've had time to think about it:

i don't feel that i am that insane for beliving that we are not in a ressesion due to observations of truck traffic in the NY/NJ metro area because i heard that the NY/NJ metro area as well as the DC/balt area are not as affected by the economy as other regions. These are two areas that i run frequently.

The farthest i run west is columbus ohio, and that area too does not seem massively affected at least on the major interstates. i know Worthington, oh. is in trouble, but that is another topic.

i don't run any farther north than boston---another area that doesn't seem affected. And the farthest south, charlotte---again, the queen city seems stable at this time.

So, i agree, i don't run say wyoming or something (probably not the best example) so i can't say with authority how truck traffic really is.


2) Three of my other theories concerning low miles per week are as follows:

a) You can get lucky---i should have about 2965 miles this week. There is still luck out there---you just need to find it more dilligently then ever before. When i first started driving, if you had a licence you had a job. Simple as that. AND you had more miles than you could legally run and more often than not, you ran more miles than you could legally run.

It's not so anymore. You've got to search for it. You may have to move. Get on the C.B. (yes i know there is alot of B.S. on it) but don't ask just one driver from a particular company, ask 10 from the same company. Make lots of phone calls. Bug drivers at truckstops, again it would probably be best to talk to several drivers from the same company vs. just one.

b) If drivers want to get home on a regular/frequent basis, this could hurt the problem.

i think this means that the company must hire more drivers/have a certain number of drivers on duty/ready to go at any given time to be able to service the customers. And so, more drivers at a time where freight is down means less miles to go around for each driver.

c) If you choose to stay out for extended periods/or "never" go home, this could help you get more miles.

If you choose to stay out for extended periods, this could help you get more miles for the simple fact that if you are on duty over the weekend and there's no-one else to take the load, you will get the load which equals at least 800 miles for the weekend. That alone gets you more miles.

The other reason is that your dispatcher will realize (hopefully) that you are flexible and they can count on you and maybe they will just start to give you more loads because they figure you'll just get them done because you're efficient because you don't have any concern for hometime.