The Trucking Industry’s Driver Shortage Debate
For-hire, long-haul, truckload carriers are struggling to hire and retain qualified truck drivers. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) has long described this issue as the “driver shortage.”
According to Bob Costello, ATA’s chief economist, this shortage has led to rising driver pay, even in what many describe as the worst freight recession in years. However, not everyone agrees that there is a true driver shortage. Some industry experts argue that the real issue is high driver turnover, not a lack of available workers.
Is It Really a Shortage, or Just Turnover?
Industry groups such as the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) challenge the idea of a driver shortage. Todd Spencer, OOIDA’s president, believes the problem is rooted in retention, citing 100% to 150% turnover rates in many trucking companies.
“When you actually look at what goes on, the problem is retention,” Spencer said.
The turnover issue is costly. According to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), truck driver wages are the largest operational expense for carriers. Despite wage increases, fleets still struggle to maintain a stable workforce.
As the freight market prepares for an upturn, demand for qualified drivers is expected to rise, making the issue even more pressing.
The Global Truck Driver Hiring Problem
The challenge of finding truck drivers is not unique to the U.S.
The International Road Transport Union (IRU) reports that truck driver shortages exist worldwide, affecting regions such as Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East, and Asia.
For example, in 2022:
- Eurasia had a driver vacancy rate of 18%
- Turkey had a 15% shortage
- Europe faced a 10% shortage
U.S. Trucking Faces Long-Term Hiring Challenges
According to ATA surveys, the driver shortage has ranked as a top industry concern for over a decade. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) notes that this problem has persisted since the 1980s.
While recruitment is a challenge, retention is an even bigger concern. The ATA estimates that large truckload carriers experience turnover rates averaging 83% to 93%, creating instability in the labor force.
Why is turnover so high?
- Wages and benefits – Drivers often leave for better pay or sign-on bonuses.
- Working conditions – Long hours and time away from home make the job demanding.
- Job competition – Drivers can switch jobs easily, leading to frequent job-hopping.
How Bad Is the Driver Shortage?
The ATA’s 2021 forecast estimated that the industry was short 80,000 drivers, and if trends persist, the shortage could exceed 160,000 by 2030.
However, Costello believes the situation has improved slightly due to the ongoing freight recession.
“The availability of drivers has gotten better simply because we have been in a freight recession,” Costello said.
Still, many applicants fail to qualify due to:
- Drug test failures
- Accident histories
- Lack of necessary certifications
Rising Wages for Truck Drivers
Despite low freight rates, carriers are paying more for drivers to combat hiring difficulties.
The Department of Labor (DOL) reports that long-haul truck driver wages have increased faster than inflation for most of the last decade. Since 2020, wages have grown an average of 6% per year, reflecting carriers’ struggles to attract and retain talent.
Will the Driver Shortage Get Worse?
Industry reports suggest that U.S. freight demand will rise in the coming years, which could worsen the driver shortage.
Retirements are a major concern. The ATA estimated in 2019 that the average truck driver was 46 years old, with retirements projected to be the biggest contributor to the driver shortage through 2030.
Is the Driver Shortage Real?
While the trucking industry struggles with hiring, not all experts agree that a driver shortage exists.
Some argue that the issue is pay and working conditions, rather than a true lack of drivers.
OOIDA’s Spencer believes the solution is improving treatment of drivers rather than focusing on hiring numbers.
“They’re not treated well, and they’re not paid well. There’s really no incentive to stick around—so they don’t,” Spencer said.
Turnover, Not a Shortage?
Several industry research firms, including DAT Freight & Analytics and ACT Research, argue that turnover is the real problem.
A study by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics found no evidence of a sustained driver shortage, concluding that high turnover creates the illusion of a labor crisis.
Similarly, a National Academy of Sciences study commissioned by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration called the driver shortage narrative “spurious.”
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