The June 2025 freight market shows signs of life, but not enough to declare a recovery. After a promising end to 2024, freight activity has remained mostly stagnant, with pockets of volatility driven by regulatory changes, capacity shifts, and uncertain economic conditions. This month’s update from KCH Transportation highlights key developments impacting volumes, trucking employment, driver policies, and modal competition.
Truckload Volumes: Short-Haul Surge vs. Long-Haul Decline
Total truckload volumes in late May are 2% lower than the same time in 2023. However, short-haul shipments, supported by local e-commerce and consumer trends, are outperforming. Long-haul volumes, on the other hand, are shrinking as more shippers rely on intermodal to manage mid-mile costs. Notably, truckload rejection rates rose 37% year-over-year, reaching nearly 7% after Memorial Day. This mild pressure could grow as we approach peak summer shipping around the July 4th holiday.
Trucking Employment: Fragmentation Deepens
The industry now consists of more than 500,000 trucking companies, with half operating fewer than five trucks. Micro-fleets surged between 2017 and 2022, growing 68% in employment and 70% in firm count, yet still accounting for less than 10% of trucking employment. Since May 2022, trucking jobs have declined 3%, highlighting inefficiencies across a highly fragmented industry.
ELP Enforcement: A Looming Workforce Disruption
New English Language Proficiency (ELP) enforcement rules will go live on June 25. This change could affect roughly 114,000 drivers, or 3.8% of the workforce, particularly in immigrant-heavy states like Texas, California, and Florida. In Texas, where foreign-born drivers hold 25% of CDLs and Laredo alone moved 3 million loads in 2024, the enforcement could have significant effects on freight movement and labor availability.
Container Volumes and Tariff Impact
While container imports from China are rebounding post-tariff pause, volumes remain below 2024 levels. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles and New York are up 23% and 29% respectively month-over-month, but still trail last year’s prices by 28–36%. The increase appears driven more by precautionary front-loading than a genuine spike in demand.
Intermodal vs. Truckload
Rail is capitalizing on the long-haul slowdown, posting near-record intermodal volumes. In contrast, long-haul truckload lanes—especially in Southern California—are hitting five-year lows. The market favors cost efficiency over speed, pushing freight away from trucks and toward rail.
Trailer Type Breakdown
- Dry Van: Rates are $0.06/mile above 2024 and trending upward, though direction remains uncertain.
- Flatbed: Rejections fell 50% due to project delays tied to tariffs and interest rate instability.
- Reefer: Rates briefly spiked in late May with produce demand, but quickly leveled off; volatility remains ahead of July harvests.
As June unfolds, the freight market sits in a state of suspended momentum. Regulatory changes, driver shortages, and shifting modal preferences are setting the stage for what could be a disruptive peak season—or a continuation of tepid trends.
Source:
https://kchtrans.com/june-2025-monthly-freight-market-update/?
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