The Numbers Show Increases – But Freight Carriers Still Wait for Impact

Encouraging signs of increased demand in the U.S. trucking market are reflected in FreightWaves SONAR’s Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) & Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI). OTVI is up, but OTRI is at an all-time low of 3.76%, suggesting an oversupply of trucks chasing current demand. If OTRI continues to struggle while OTVI rises, it signifies too much capacity & carriers are unlikely to feel optimism about the freight market soon.

Truckload spot rates (net of fuel) have dropped from $2.02 to $1.82 per mile since Jan. 9 despite increasing volume. This is still above the lowest rate this cycle ($1.67/mile on Nov. 17, 2022), yet carriers have not been encouraged by the downward trend. With produce shipments and the typical spring shipping season on the horizon, excess capacity should tighten in the coming months, giving hope to truckers.