A new report on the impacts that autonomous vehicle technology could have on the trucking industry is out. Unlike the previous study we reported on, this one examines a longer time frame – 25 years – and estimates that the technology will replace almost 300,000 truckers.
Actually, the exact number, 294,000, is much lower than some other studies have predicted. But this study, from the University of Pennsylvania, points out that the majority of job losses will come in some of the best-paid positions in trucking and may even result in lower pay for truckers as a whole.
Drivers who are at the greatest risk are those who don’t perform many specialized non-driving tasks. Interestingly, the report lists unloading freight, coupling trailers, vehicle inspection, and maintenance as examples of these “specialized” tasks.
The report expects that mostly long-haul drivers will be replaced in the early days of automation. And though those positions will be eliminated, more local drivers will need to be hired to take the goods the final mile. And that will likely mean lower pay for truckers.
“The risk of autonomous trucks is not that there won’t be enough jobs for American truckers, it’s that there won’t be enough good jobs,” reads the report.
But according to some carriers, it’s not all bad news. Brian Fielkow, the CEO of Jetco Delivery says that autonomous driving technology is actually going to attract more drivers into the business.
“The driver-assist technology, automatic breaking, roll stability, speed and space management, the ergonomics, the comfort that’s coming into new trucks, [are] going to make truck-driving fun again,” said Fielkow according to Yahoo Finance.
Source: wsj, cnbc, gobytrucknews, yahoofinance, truckersreport
An honest Trucker just telling the truth says
Well, this is good news. I am hoping to make it to 12 million accident free miles, and this may make it possible if I have 25 years left. I have been studying autonomous trucks since the early 1980’s. My research shows 293,999 jobs lost and that trucking will be a “blast”.
Time to head to Louisiana and not even hit a love bug to remain accident free. To the University of Pennsylvania researchers, remember “those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach. Those who don’t know #### about trucking conduct studies on it and interview random people.”
Shut up and get to work says
I’ve been studying autonomous trucks since the late 1970’s and my research shows only 293, 998 jobs lost and that trucking will be “totally groovy.”
David Edward Hanavan says
Hey, their research is only looking at the truck drivers. What about the gas station attendants, the truck stop maintenance personnel, and all those waitresses who have a job just because of us. They will lose their jobs so the job loss numbers are four times higher than what they are claiming. Especially being I forgot to mention dispatchers will lose their jobs, customer service management will lose their jobs, and so will several other divisions of companies such as log Department, payroll, and other such areas in a business.
An honest Trucker just telling the truth says
We should collaborate on our findings. I will have to find time, these 12 million accident free miles take up a lot of it.
BC says
12 million? Reeeeeally?
150k is no walk in the park. That’s basically being on the road 350 days a year at 3k miles a week. No real vacation, no time off, no break downs, always moving.
So if you started driving at 21, you would reach that totally achievable milestone at the ripe old age of 101.
But let’s say you are “super trucker” and of course your truck would have to be “super truck”, and you drive 4K per week 50 weeks a year. A number that is as unrealistic as it is impossible due to HOS limitations. But let’s go with it.
12 million miles divided by 200k would be 60 year of driving. So IF you started at 21 you would be 81 at that milestone.
Lol. Bull. If I hear another driver say, “I been behind the wheel over 30 years.” I’m going to stop him and ask, “How could you possibly be so god damn stupid?”
Bean says
It’s possible to do 4,000 aweek, I just did 4,217 last week. That’s only averaging 60.24 mph for 70 hrs. Walk in the park.
Gary E Stein says
you cant do that week after week after week…..a single driver can never do 200k miles a year…..
Bobk says
Well i started in August of 1987
This August ive been at this shit 31 years.. my dad started in 1966 and still at today 52 years later and hes 70 years old.
My grandfather drove for 40 years and my uncle started in 1970 and still at it.. all of us owner ops. There have been good times and bad. Just have to take it in stride and wheather those storms. As soon as these self driving trucks cause enough accidents involving deaths and law suits start rollin in it will end.
Truckers wife says
Never learned to detect sarcasm, huh. Too bad.
Slow and low says
4000 a week. Piece of cake. You probably drive one of those ATA Mega carriers.
You need to quit that company because his drivers like you that are hurting the industry.
Mark Jeffrey Ealy says
Lolo work at mega make 70k home 2nights aweek good ins and beni package i think small carriers suck dont pay ontime no beni…..
Robert Graham says
I’ve been out here for damn near 40years accident free and I don’t think I’m stupid buy know means it was a good job and we had a lot of fun out here until the school boys and the pin heads in government stuck their head into it
Joe says
Where is “out here?”
An honest Trucker just telling the truth says
You forgot one important fact. I started my accident free trucking career at the age of 18 runninv intrastate. So I will be able to retire at 78, not 81.
gearjamn says
I just saw you stated you started driving Intrastate at 18 and you were able to log that many miles doing Intrastate … I think your nose is growing Pinocchio ,lol
An honest Trucker just telling the truth says
Its very easy. You get a daily 700+ mile run. Keep the left door closed, and if its an automatic you will be well rested. Be a typical driver, crank, switch it in D and keep ytour foot to the governed floor til you get there, oblivious to all other traffic.
Alex says
Same as engineers that design highways with poor knowledge, engines that you can’t even access easy replacement parts, it is impossible to deliver in south cali
An honest Trucker just telling the truth says
Stay angry, sucker!
Joe says
Rick obviously missed the sarcasm of your post. Love how hes in all caps calling others moron. Classic
John says
I think he was being sarcastic dude. I think you read more into driver.
Mike Marc Dave says
Exactly lol
gearjamn says
So 12 million accident free miles so what are you like 75 years old or older now ? I mean you would have to average 236,000 miles a year for over 52 years to of made that many miles so you are at least 73 years old right ? And I do not know anyone that can do that each and every year …. that is about the max you can drive a year based on and average of 65 miles and hour all miles …..You ever REALLY drive a truck ? Seriously ? Your funny
Gentry Newsom says
Son when I drove 4000 miles a 5day week from 1990 though 1998 so.cal to greenbay to neosho to ripon ca. That was my weekly route in a 80k tanker cat 600hp big turbine LS mid roof frtshaker top speed 104 mph we hauled shit back then there was no kids out here jumping in the fast lane at 62mph or he would get his ass kicked at the next fuel stop. You got here just now & Don’t have any real history in the industry try not to be disrespectful ..I was young once and can remember thinking just like you…beleave the man 1444k is a long drive..we didn’t go 62mph back in the day.
Fred Douglas says
You are going to acquire 12.000,000 accident free miles? I do not think so!
An honest Trucker just telling the truth says
Don’t hate the trucker, hate the accident free career.
dale ellis says
Will you allow your children to drive on the same road as an automaton?
Rick says
I WILL BE OUT OF THIS MESS BY THEN. I CANT WAIT TO SEE HOW MANY INNOCENT FAMILIES LOSE THEIR LIVES OVER THIS. THEY SAY THERE WONT BE THAT MANY GOOD PAYING TRUCKING JOBS LEFT??? There are none now with all of the free miles and time that is donated by US DRIVERS and it doesn’t change. IM JUST GLAD I HAVE MY OWN GIG NOW AND FINALLY FOUND THE SWEET SPOT IN TRUCKING WITH MINIMAL MILES AND MINIMAL TIME ON THE ROAD AND EQUIPMENT IS PAID OFF. F ALL OF THESE people!!!
Joe2boltz says
Yea buddy!
Jason Wells says
Bingo!
Hleeming says
Michigans product liability law
Michigan’s Product Liability Law
To hold a driverless-car manufacturer or the manufacturer of driverless-car-technology liable for an accident, an injured victim would likely have to contend with Michigan’s product liability law, which is strikingly stacked in favor of shielding manufacturers from liability for injuries their products caused.
For instance, manufacturers are presumed to not be liable for injuries caused by their products:
“In a product liability action brought against a manufacturer … for harm allegedly caused by a product, there is a rebuttable presumption that the manufacturer … is not liable if … the aspect of the product that allegedly caused the harm was in compliance with standards relevant to the event causing death or injury …” (MCL 600.2946(4))
And, it’s a very high hurdle that an injured victim must clear in order overcome manufacturers’ broad grant immunity.
A victim must show that the manufacturer:
Knew its product was defective;
Knew there was a “substantial likelihood” the defect would cause the victim’s injury; and,
“[W]illfully disregarded that knowledge in the manufacture and distribution of its product.” (MCL 600.2949a)
Hleeming says
I see a lot of accidents, with no compensation for death or injury with the use of autonomous vehicles in the future.
Jim says
All it needs is a simple regulation that let’s say 10 or 20% of the fleet is automated… Or tell the mega companies to drop that 1500 mile per week bs and actually utilize their drivers, then they can’t bitch about a shortage though..
Joe2boltz says
Never happen. The driverless trucks will have a fleet of geeks following them. Ha ha ha i kill myself.
I drive a 2018 cascadia, total junk. Its in the shop all the time. Either getting a part replaced or up dated. Or having the lane departure adjusted or actually replaced.
Or getting the radar alignment set or thd antenna replaced again for the umpteenth time. Or a switch or relay replaced. Its always somethin techy.
NEVER something broken or worn out.
Goin in the shop now cause the A/ C is havin fits. Sometimes it blows cold other times not so cold and presently its warm air. But if i pull the main breaker and reboot the truck, it blows cold for a few hours then goes away again.
Now this wouldn’t b a problem with a driverless unit but, all the other tihs is still brakin down.
Driverless trucks, yea sure… ha ha ha….
Mack says
I second that. I drive the new batch of Kenworths, Peterbilts abd Volvos all the time. They’re all shyte due to the broken tech and/or emission control. The Volvo for example has this front end sensor, which detects traffic in front ( very annoying ) so it can slow the truck down while in cruise control mode. The trouble is it gets clogged with snow during a snow storm and stops working all the time. That one, lone issue will cause death and mayhem when trucks go autonomous. Oh yeah, and they can’t see traffic lanes when the pavement is covered wuth snow. Also at construction sites, where lanes are rerouted abd painted over many times, it goes crazy confused. Those few issues I pointed out are my real experiences with these new trucks. It shows that the tech is created by people who know the tech, but don’t know trucking real world situations. Somebody here also reminded us about the many instances when GPS took someone into a lake, or a one way street, or in my case, wanted me to turn left across a cement median. No, I’m not worried about the robots taking over trucking. Not in my lifetime anyway.
pete says
You don’t use cruise control on snow packed roads, or in a snow storm rookie.
Barf Green says
Already had to rewire the entire harness on the front of mine twice since new in Feb 2018. Entire fan hub assembly was replaced week, after engine fan came on and stayed on for a week. Hill assist/traction control/brake assist/cruise/stability control lights randomly all light up even after rewire, truck wasn’t doing regen and DPF required service. Collision warning comes on going under certain overpasses on Interstates, causing brakes to randomly lock up for smoke show (apparently this can’t be fixed or avoided, except by avoiding driving).
Truck has 140,000 miles currently since February. Can’t wait until things start to wear out and no one has a clue how to fix any of it, or that collision warning puts me in the woods in Maine by locking up in ice.
Samuel gallezzo says
I’m laughing at all you super truckers with your ridiculous cowboy hats and boots. You messed up this profession because you were too stupid to realize that you walked into a lot of abusive situations. If companies could automate their fleets legally right now they would have no problem sending you packing. 10/4 over and out. Start scouting for a homeless shelter.
Lynne Palmer says
Well lucky for us! This is a thankless job for sure. Many of us take pride in a safe, job well done. If we parked our trucks for just 72 hours it would be mayhem across America. Just about everything in the grocery stores, home depots, equipment and supply companies depend on us cowboy hat and boot wearing Americans. Just making an honest living and taking care of our families. We make a lot of sacrifices.
Realoverture says
Thank God you all do, too, Lynne! I’m grateful.
Joe says
Been hearing “shut em down ” over forty years and I know old men who have heard it since the 1930’s and guess what?
Truckers wife says
He’s not an idiot, he’s telling the truth, don’t be offended by the truth. Truckers, in general, will take all kinds of abuse. I’ve asked my husband (who trucks) why they don’t just band together, unionize or something like other trades do, that way they can just shut America down to get their due pay. Trucking is the backbone of America and yet the drivers don’t seem to understand the power that they have, they just try to “go it alone” and take messed up stuff happening to them. It’s really sad.
Steven says
So in 25 yrs they’re going to replace 300k drivers odd we’re missing 750k right now so what are u going to do about them???? At current levels of tech I see a few carriers going belly up after they buy all new automius trucks and they don’t work. Or crash or just breakdown.
Heather says
🤣. Just 🤣! First, this is a load of crap. The one thing that’s holding this whole automatons ‘thing’ back is that first all…the technology just isn’t where it needs to be yet ! 🤣 you’d have to have good paved roads with lines painted on them, to begin with. Next..did any of you all catch that news story about two months ago in California of that little Uber driver snoozing in his small and totally safe autonomous car while it carried him to his next pick up ? ‘The car…because I’m assuming we can’t blame the driver for taking advantage of the only advantage of the car…….’the car’ smacked a bicycler and kept on going. Can you imagine auto trucks in Atlanta ? Even on the bypass? Or Los Angeles…and I surely don’t want one fully loaded and coasting down the Rockies beside me and 20 other loaded drivers. 🤦🏼♀️
Paul Thomas says
The forecasted vision of this report that more drivers will be needed to complete the final mile will satisfy all those wheel holders that very about never being home. Local work for local pay.
I run hotshot flatbed and don’t ever see this affecting me.
Steel Horses and Wooden Men says
How is being a monkey in a 80,000lb wreck waiting to happen good news? Hope they fix the GPS system first before they have another truck rammed into a house or bathing in a lake. But, we have 25 years of accidents for them to get it right, right?
Andrew says
The easiest and cheapest way to move freight from terminal A to terminal B without trucker is railroad.The rest anyway will require driver for local delivery. Will someone to explain me logic behind the driverless truck ? Why people spending money to invent bike if it is already invented long time ago ?
Ricobeatz says
I hope that the deathtoll goes up when “Auto Trucks” comes to play! Major Carriers like Swift, Prime, Cre England, etc. will be sued for money that could of been invested in a good “Human Driver” so they can see how revenue is going down instead down instead of up!!
Fools Games says
“”this one examines a longer time frame – 25 years – and estimates that the technology will replace almost 300,000 truckers.””
—————————————————————————————————————————
Once again the Trucking Industry, don’t just shoot itself in the foot, it takes the extra step of blowing it’s foot off.
The industry, aka ATA, Bob Costello and so call industry advocates and stake holders love to cry about “The Truck Driver Shortage”, spot rates going through the roof, freight rates skyrocketing, driver pay increases and on and on. Add to that the so called legislation making it’s way thru congress that reduces the driver age requirements to 18 years old in, so called ‘pilot programs’ to reduce the driver shortage are ALL nothing short of Hilarious!
The Cold Reality and the facts of the matter at ground Zero, there is NO Driver Shortage! Anybody can drive a truck (with the required training and CDL). There are no less than 300 million Truck Drivers in America today, just waiting on the opportunity. Sadly, 299 million are either working in other industries or are bona fide ‘couch potatoes’ waiting on pay to go up. The other million are actual drivers, working their toes to the bone everyday crying about low pay and over regulation so they can finish grinding their toes off for the same pay.
So, the industry gets more and more creative, $0.50 – $0.60 per mile, $10k hiring bonuses, off every weekend, home time on demand, make $80k – $100k, everyone see’s the employment ads. That’s the creative twist, to twist the mind just long enough to get you hired in the door, and knocking down miles to find out a few weeks later that “Hey — this is not really what I signed up for!”. Then WALLA, now we have a 120% driver turnover rate while capacity utilization falls to 85% with trucks sitting waiting on drivers to be hired.
Now, their blasting the air waves with regular news articles touting “autonomous vehicles” and how this technology is going to have the same effect on trucking that automation had on manufacturing 30 years ago with robotic trucks replacing human drivers.
Driver pay has only increased 3% to 5%, some accounts have it at 10% – 15%. So that’s 15% of what the bureau of labor statistics says the average driver pay is at $44,000 — that’s a $125.00 a week at a time when medical insurance rates double every year, not to mention a small fortune for the deductible’s or even what use to be $20 per day in normal expense for a driver on the road is now over $45 per day.
The industry is going the extra mile, working overtime and doing everything it can to push drivers like heards of cattle out of their trucks and into other industries or to couches to join the ranks of the rest of the couch potatoes by brainwashing existing drivers, intentionally keeping driver pay at historically depressing levels while simultaneously discouraging potentially new drivers from entering the industry with claims their jobs are being eliminated by robots. Even snotty nosed kids reaching puberty who can’t even drive a car yet, waiting at the opportunity to get their hands on a budweiser and get behind the wheel of an 80,000 lb torpedo, have brains developed enough to know it takes more than a living wage to buy beer and are taught in grammar school to ‘just say no’ — to trucking.
Hilarious! When the store shelves get empty, dairy products and frozen foods spoil on the dock, stock holder dividends dry up and the industry comes to the
frightening realization that robots aint going to be driving trucks for 40 years, they might actually get the dollar bills out of their ears and start making at least some feeble effort to pay drivers and begin to correct their greed and short comings of generations gone by!
Richard B says
I don’t agree with self driving trucks. Things always break and then you have hackers who could get into computer systems. With terrorism in the world this just doesn’t make sense to risk public safety just to try to save a few bucks. You take away careers from people so they cannot support their families. But one thing I must point out to everyone is that it’s sick to wish families getting killed by driverless trucks. I do believe this can be a reality but to wish it is more wrong. How would you feel if it was your family that was lost.
DAVID K RANK says
Wow!
Come Lord Jesus Come!
DAVID K RANK says
Maybe I will find a load and set my truck on auto cruise this week.
Kick back and play with Mama and roll in the doe at the same time. lol
Mike says
The problem with driverless trucks is that they can’t blame the driver when the thing crashes. It will be management’s or the manufacturer’s fault, tougher fix than just firing the driver.
On the other hand, as an owner operator I wouldn’t mind have two robot trucks following me around all day for 3x the pay. Fueling and parking that convoy would be a pain in the ass.
Alex D says
I can foresee maximim overdrive by steven king hapening sa cybernet and hackers take over
Donavon DeGraff says
Oh yeah so much fun when the TRUCK jabbes the brakes at overpass shadows. Pure joy thinking about a snow covered road and autopilot truck coming at me at 65mph. And oh the joy and glee as my pay check GETS smaller!!!! Weeeee…. weeeee….. It’s FUN!!!!!
Andrew H says
I drive a level 3 autonomous truck, a 2018 Cascadia with all those sensors in the windshield, mirrors, bumper, etc.
The automatic cruise, I’ll admit, is pretty cool. No matter how stupid the person in front of you is driving, your truck will keep pace, no adjusting required.
However, these features are tools. I would not trust these tools to preform my job for me. It doesn’t take much for the system to go out, especially in my dedicated nightly US-2 route in Northern Michigan. In the winter, autonomous driving is absolutely impossible. I wonder if that’s a thing they think of when developing this stuff. The entire country isn’t Interstate 10.
Greg says
That can’t get a regular car to work ! 80,000 lbs Semi they can do it better?
I can’t speak for anyone else when I ask this question; How are the New drivers supposed to take over in bad driving conditions when the only real driving experience they will have is for short distance. For the drivers who have been doing this we know that you have to know what your doing driving in bad weather! How are they going to learn to be able to take over when they don’t have the experience! It scares me to death!
TONY says
Can’t wait for these trucks .Tired of this BS drivers calling asking for 75-80cent per mile to drive our stick shift trucks
Red says
We are tired of companies trying to pay us poverty wages. Doesn’t matter what kind of truck it is either. Pay a living wage or f**k off!
Fred Douglas says
no one said you have to accept that Y>O? job or be a truck driver! Get an education and be a Technician. MAKE GREAT MONEY WITH GOOD BENEFITS, and be home nights with your girlfriend ad her kids.
Jason Fountain says
Well I’ve been trying to train this truck all week how to fold these tarps. The damn thing just stares at them. I’m gonna see how well Pete does securing a coil later.
Mike says
They keep talking about this driver shortage. Yet pay for the driver, while some companies have slightly raised their pay, overall it is still in the crapper. Have rates gone up for the OO? Sure doesn’t sound like it. Simple economics of supply and demand.
It’s all b.s.
Gentry Newsom says
Yah it can be kinda like the Jetson’s anybody or family could sign up for a auto.freight.vacation for free and ride along while the truck does its route! Wow what a concept, do you have anymore of what your taking..
I wan’t some? You should share when you get (The Good Stuff) yah that sounds like a lot of fun? I can’t wait hurry up and getter done..I’m all for fun!
Tommy Molnar says
I think anyone reading these notes right now, will be long dead by the time any of this “Jetsons” type stuff happens. No computer is going to take over truck driving. Even the God of electric self driving stuff himself (Elon Musk) is starting to take a dive as GM and the others take over. But none of them is going to take the plunge and say their cars are “Self driving”. The risk to life and limb is too great, and the exposure to lawsuits is insurmountable.
If computers are ever able to think and reason like humans, the human race will cease to exist and the earth will just be a place where Microsoft runs itself BY itself – with no humans, and no reason for any existence of life at all.
[Slowly let the X-Files theme song start playing now]
Steve Duggan says
Go for it, I’ll be long gone by then
Eric the Animal says
I’m a million miler and not worried, they don’t know jack and can’t replace the brain of a driver, especially around construction zones, bad weather, etc. High value loads will get jacked and people will die when the software short circuits. There is one difference between me and a driverless truck……I can’t get hacked (although I do like a Jack and coke once in a while)
John says
They always claim in these reports that the autonomous systems will get rid of the higher paying OTR jobs and leave the lower paying local jobs but I’ve been driving local now for three years. Prior to that I drove OTR for over 7 years and my income is almost double driving local then it ever was over the road. Over the road I was only averaging about 32k a year. Locally I’ve hit almost 60k the last three years. OTR it was the classic hurry and wait routine. Drive five or six hours and then sit in a dock for eight hours. When you’re getting paid by the mile, they’ll leave in that dock for however long. They don’t care. Detention pay? Yeah right. That’s a hypothetical theory. However when you’re getting paid by the hour, they’ll get you out of that dock in a hurry.
Red says
You had the wrong otr jobs. I make $75k/yr as a company driver. You must have drove for swift or some other ata company with billions in profits while you ate ramen noodles for dinner.
Jeff Pearson says
But it will be fun at the end of the unemployment line..i can guarantee that these so called self driving trucks will replace every truck driver..dont think so? Just watch..
Denadii says
Typical of politicians. They ok driverless trucks before they get driverless cars safe…Kill off most of the four wheelers with driverless trucks, then the trucks won’t have accidents, because there will be no traffic to hit.
George says
Trains will always have railroad engineers. Planes will always have pilots. Ships will always have captains. Trucks will always have drivers. Cut the shix.
Skirt says
Lol… these comments… make sure you believe everything on the internet…
Even if they do take over it’s one field of truck driving… OTR van… not hauling aggregate or cars or flat beds or OD or anything else… Those things would just turn 95 in Ny into a junk yard… I’m not worried about it. No computer is gonna take over my tri axle, my low bed and my wrecker in the winter…
Jordan says
Unless they have auto truck only roads don’t see it happening we all have computers and they all get glitchy ..ins. Ins.ins deaths deaths deaths lawyers n court battles will keep this a dream for s long fine .. I mean really who do I start punching when I jump up into the cab if I walk away from a truck and my. Car accident ..that’s the fun of it fist revenge
Sharon Weems says
In 25 years most current truckers will be retired. And in 25 years, the government will have fined, charged, surcharges, tolled, cited, and taxed us out. Most truckers will quit before then. Drivers are quitting because of the abuse put upon us for making sure you have food, clothing, medicine and EVERYTHING ELSE purchased.
Luis says
I can’t wait!!
RD S says
Whoa!! After all this negativity I’m looking for a dull razor knife to slash my wrists.
The harder jobs will be along time before the change happens. Box trailers will be the first to go.
If I didn’t like the job or the money where I was – I looked for a ‘career’ move – not just another paycheque.
Haven’t made less than $95 k in the last 19 years – even with the downturns in ‘06, 08 and 14
les_gvt says
Wonder what happens to one of these automated trucks going through Eisenhower? Actually along a lot of I 70. Or what about VA and WV- If I cant get my XM/Siris, and GPS, what makes them think the truck will get signals to drive itself? HHMMMM
“911 dispatch , what is your emergency?”
Walter says
And once again those who make these decisions have us fighting amongst ourselves over the most mundane of issues. Who cares if someone drives 12 million miles by the time they are 21 or 101. The point is the bean counters are putting us out of business because we squable amongst ourselves over stupid sh!t.