Giovanni Schelfi of the global consultancy firm Roland Berger noted that disruptions to the world economy are happening more often and with greater intensity than before. These disruptions are caused by a variety of factors, including geopolitical shifts (e.g. war in Ukraine), climate change, COVID-19, and issues in the global supply chain.
The war in Ukraine has limited access to vital raw materials and upped costs in Europe, leading to a relocation of sites and jobs, even to North America. Schelfi states that volatility is the new normal and long-term plans are no longer feasible. Roland Berger expects a decrease in global growth in 2023 as well as similar inflation and labor market conditions to those experienced during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic.
These disruptions in the supply chain are driven by macro factors, causing a structural difference between demand and supply and an increase in logistics costs which could last for two to five years. The switch from ICEs to ZEVs will reduce supplier capability and availability for commercial vehicle OEMs over time.
Fleet owners and logistics managers are asked to pay special attention to these changes as they factor their goals and plans for the next 5-10 years, as the impacts are likely to be seen extending past the events causing the turmoil.
Sources:
https://www.truckinginfo.com/10191203/geopolitical-climate-drives-volatile-global-commercial-vehicle-market
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