Trucking Market Holds Up in January

Trucking Market Holds Up in January

The U.S. trucking market is off to a stronger-than-expected start in January, defying the usual post-holiday slowdown. Instead of seeing freight volumes and rates cool off after the busy November and December season, the market is showing continued tightness in capacity and steady pricing.

Traditionally, January brings a lull as retailers slow shipments after restocking shelves for the holidays. So far in 2026, that slowdown hasn’t happened. Data suggests carriers are still rejecting freight at elevated levels, and spot rates remain stronger than what the industry has seen in recent years.

Capacity Remains Tight

One of the clearest signs of a firm trucking market is the level of tender rejections. According to SONAR data, the Outbound Tender Rejection Index (STRI.USA) is sitting at 9.97%.

That means:

• Nearly 1 out of every 10 truckload shipments is being rejected by carriers

• Carriers are either short on capacity or finding better-paying loads elsewhere

• Shippers are facing more difficulty covering freight through contract routes

This rejection rate is higher than anything recorded in 2023, 2024, or 2025, and matches levels last seen in 2022, during the sharp market adjustment following the COVID-era freight boom. Elevated rejections continue to disrupt shipper routing guides and are helping keep spot rates supported.

Spot Rates Stay Elevated

Truckload spot rates are also holding up well:

• $2.62 per mile, including fuel, nationwide

• Down slightly from the $2.76 peak reached in late December

• Still higher than typical January levels

While rates have come off their holiday highs, they haven’t dropped as quickly or as sharply as they normally do at the start of the year. This suggests the balance between supply and demand remains healthier than expected.

Regional Market Highlights

Conditions vary across major freight hubs:

• Chicago: 9.51% tender rejection rate

• Harrisburg: 9.45% tender rejection rate

• Both markets are struggling to cover outbound loads

On the other hand:

• Los Angeles remains relatively loose

• Rejection rate of 4.33%, the lowest among major markets

Import activity is still relatively soft, and much of that freight is being absorbed by rail. Intermodal volumes grew 2% in 2025, following 8% growth in 2024, even as truckload volumes declined.

Looking Ahead to 2026

There are early signs that freight dynamics could shift further this year:

• Inventories contracted faster than expected at the end of 2025

• Consumer spending was a major driver of 4.3% GDP growth in Q3

• The National Retail Federation has raised import expectations

If inventories continue shrinking while consumer demand stays strong, shippers may turn back to truckload freight for faster transit, better visibility, and door-to-door service. That could push spot rates higher.

That said, uncertainty remains. A potential Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could quickly reshape trade flows and importer confidence.

For now, one thing is clear: trucking capacity remains tighter for longer, and rates are stronger than the industry has seen in years.

 

Source:

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/trucking-market-holds-up-in-january