In a scenario that mirrors the question of “what came first, the chicken or the egg,” supply chain logjam solutions involve a similar issue. What does America need first — the truck or the truck driver. Although opinions on that subject range widely, few freight hauling experts have the answer.
The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) position is that the U.S. needs to add 80,000 CDL holders to meet current transportation needs. That number, as well as a lower 61,000 figure, had been disputed in recent years by media outlets and the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS). But since the supply chain suffered historic bottlenecks on the West Coast, most agree the country needs more truckers.
“A thing to note is that before the pandemic, even though we had a shortage, more people were entering the industry. The issue is that new entrants into the industry didn’t keep up with demand for goods,” ATA chief economist Bob Costello reportedly said.
Some analyses indicate the trucking driver workforce has steadily increased. The BLS’s data shows heavy and tractor-trailer truck driver outlook continues to post average 6 percent growth. Unfortunately, the economic rebound from the pandemic has ramped up consumer goods demand that appears to exceed that level. Reports coming out of the U.K. and EU also declare major truck driver shortages, largely due to heightened demand. While there may be plenty of men and women with CDLs earning a living, the shortfall appears to be on long-haul freight delivers.
But even if Congress follows through by passing the Drive SAFE Act that allows adults 18-20 years old to haul loads across state lines, will there be enough trucks?
Tractor and trailer manufacturers have also endured a bumpy supply chain ride. Semiconductors as well as other parts and materials, have not arrived at plants in time to keep production rolling. Heavy truck orders backslid again in October by 12 percent from the previous month and suffered a 39 percent year-over-year decline. Class 8 orders have been stuck at a low of 23,000 to 28,000 orders for more than six months.
“It indicates that the market is essentially frozen in this range of around 22,000-26,000 trucks. Without the clogged supply chain, production would be significantly higher, and orders would be elevated also. The OEMs (original equipment manufacturer) are having tremendous difficulty planning production for Q1,” FTR vice president of commercial vehicles Don Ake reportedly said. “Unfinished orders are rolling over from 2021, and there are fleets placing new orders for 2022 delivery. All these fleets are desperate for new trucks, and the challenge for the OEMs is to book the maximum production possible without excessive overbooking.”
Philosophers can craft compelling narratives about whether the chicken or the egg came first. America needs more Class 8 vehicles and qualified OTR truckers to operate them right now.
Sources: ccjdigital.com, freightwaves.com
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