January’s Record Imports Did Not Drive Freight Market Growth
The U.S. recorded a 12.5% month-over-month increase in goods imports in January, reaching an all-time high. Despite this surge, the anticipated increase in trucking demand did not materialize.
A deep dive into the data reveals that industrial supplies drove the import growth, particularly finished metal shapes, which saw an astonishing 149% increase in January after an even larger 202% spike in December.
The surge in metals and industrial materials was likely influenced by concerns over potential tariffs. Many importers rushed to bring in materials ahead of anticipated 10% to 20% import duties, which President Donald Trump has proposed.
Yet, this record import volume didn’t generate significant truck freight, raising questions about where the freight demand is going.
Switzerland’s Unexpected Role in U.S. Imports
The biggest surprise in the data was Switzerland’s sudden jump in U.S. export rankings. Traditionally ranked 15th in total exports to the U.S., Switzerland surged to fourth place in January—ahead of economic powerhouses like Germany, Japan, and South Korea.
But what exactly was Switzerland shipping?
Not Chocolate or Watches, But Gold
The answer lies in gold imports. Switzerland is the largest supplier of pure gold to the U.S., and gold shipments skyrocketed from $9.7 billion in December to $28.7 billion in January.
“Chocolate doesn’t fit under the category of ‘finished metal shapes.’ Nor do pharmaceuticals or watches. So that brings us to gold—specifically, the kind they keep at Fort Knox.”
Unlike industrial metals that drive manufacturing and freight movement, gold shipments contribute little to truck freight volumes.
How Many Trucks Would $28.7 Billion in Gold Require?
Given the January gold price of $2,700 per ounce, that amounts to 10.6 million ounces or 664,000 pounds of gold.
Assuming a standard tractor-trailer payload of 45,000 pounds, that’s only about 15 truckloads—a minuscule amount compared to the overall freight market.
Freight Industry Faces Weak Demand Despite Strong Import Growth
While January’s record imports were strong even without gold, the growth primarily came from high-value, low-freight-impact goods like computers and pharmaceuticals—not bulky commodities that generate trucking volume.
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index Signals Weak Market
The FTR Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for January fell to -2.56, nearly mirroring December’s positive 2.67 reading.
Factors contributing to poor trucking conditions:
- Higher diesel prices
- Weak freight rates
- Declining trucking utilization
“January was tough for carriers as we anticipated,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s Vice President of Trucking. “Uncertainty around tariffs is creating hesitation among businesses, slowing investment and freight demand.”
Despite some optimism for gradual improvements in trucking market conditions, analysts warn that without stronger freight volumes, truck capacity will remain underutilized, keeping rates suppressed in the months ahead.
Source:
https://www.truckinginfo.com/10237379/record-january-imports-didnt-produce-much-freight
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