Politicians are passing laws across the country mandating passenger vehicles and heavy-duty trucks achieve zero-emissions standards in the coming years. The current data regarding electric vehicles (EVs) indicates switching from gasoline and diesel could be something of a challenge. This begs the question of whether such aggressive laws are realistic or not.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul recently signed legislation that effectively bans the sale of fossil-fuel-powered cars and trucks by 2035. Enough data exists to make the switch-over viable for passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks. Popular EV automobiles such as the Polestar 2, Volkswagen’s ID.3, Tesla Model X, Ford Mustang Mach-E, and Mercedes EQS, among others, can cover 300 to 485 miles on a charge. It’s highly unlikely the former Lt. Governor who filled the vacancy left by Andrew Cuomo will be in office 13 years from now. That reality makes signing these sweeping changes into law a political no-brainer from a politician’s vantage point.
“New York is implementing the nation’s most aggressive plan to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions affecting our climate,” Gov. Hochul reportedly stated. “To reach our ambitious goals, we must reduce emissions from the transportation sector, currently the largest source of the state’s climate pollution.”
But applying a zero-emissions mandate to medium-duty and heavy-duty commercial vehicles may not be realistic. The New York law insists that 40 percent of Class 7 and 8 tractors must meet the same zero-emission standards by 2035. The move parallels California’s Advanced Clean Trucks Rule and syncs with guidelines passed in Massachusetts and New Jersey. But what may be a pipe dream is expecting the rigs of OTR truckers to comply.
“We have significant concerns, not the least of which is the lack of infrastructure,” Trucking Association of New York president Kendra Hems reportedly said. “We don’t think the state is going to be prepared to support the sales mandates. And it’s not only about the lack of infrastructure, but it’s also about the utilities having rate structures in place and what the overall cost of ownership is going to look like.”
Another caveat lawmakers are not discussing is the distance an EV Class 8 tractor can travel. The Tesla Semi announced in 2017 had a 300-500 miles single-charge distance capacity. Tesla officials later circled back and optimistically stated 80,000-pound rigs might be able to hit 600 miles. Many of today’s diesel-efficient tractors with 300-gallon tanks can negotiate upward of 2,100 miles without having to refuel.
To put that in context, a trucker may only need to refuel once when hauling a load from New York City to Los Angeles. A Tesla Semi would likely require seven pit stops. While the EV infrastructure may be in place 43 years from now, the truck driver shortage is expected to top 1 million. Do lawmakers expect every freight hauler to stop and recharge seven times more often? To say the supply chain bottlenecks would reach epic proportions would be something of an understatement.
Sources: thetrucker.com, latimes.com
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