Waiting on New Trucks thread.

I was thinking if I liquidated right now I could use those proceeds and buy a 2 year CD that yields almost 5%. It's sad to say I think that's going to outperform the trucking market in 2023 and probably 2024.

 

So.....why sell it?

I know you have calculated that it is the right thing to do for you, don't get me wrong, but in the broader sense won't used trucks become a logical solution if values continue to crash while new are still sold at a premium?

 

In your situation like that, I’d sell the one and hang on to the other as a spare as you said. I don’t think things are going to be bad for as long as a lot of others are thinking. If new trucks were being pumped out like they were in both the 2015-2016 cycle and 2018-2019 cycle, yeah I’d agree things are only going to get worse. However, OEMs are still struggling to get units produced and the high costs reflect that.

The next upturn I believe will be a capacity crunch like we saw in the later half of 2020. Whether that’s next year or the year after is up in the air, but when the Fed pivots and flatlines or decreases interest rates things will slam back open and there will not be enough good equipment on the road to handle it.

 

Things are going to get pretty bad . Oems are lying to their teeth right now just to keep the new equipment prices inflated. Alot of people are cancelling their orders or just not ordering anymore. Wait till late jan or early feb and you will see how these dealerships have "10 brand units available right now" deals with matching downpayments and reduced prices . These prices can not be sustained when the whole economy is taking a dump.

 

Again, in the previous cycles that would be true. There’s still too few new inventory as it is now though.

An honest question though: When has the price of a product like a new truck or a house ever decreased by the magnitude that it increased? Because I haven’t seen any new Petes for sale under 100k since the Clinton Administration.

 

Could you imagine if the OEMs didn’t have capacity constraints the past 18 months? At least that kept a lid on even more excess capacity.

I just wonder what is going to happen to all these dealers sitting on used equipment that they paid up for. They have some write downs a coming.

 

My brother bought a brand new 379 in 2001. Flattop with the C16 Cat. It was $108k and everyone thought he was crazy.

 

I don’t think every truck is created equal. The 389s keep their value (hence why I always argue you may get worse fuel MPG you will make up for it on your trade value).

I bought a 389 in November 2020 for $163K, they came down $1000 from their asking price. Where the Mack and Volvo dealers were having a fire sale and coming down $20K from their starting price. A person could have bought a brand new Mack Anthem for $130K. I found this Volvo I inquired about in November 2020.