We're Being Watched, and its not just driver facing cameras.

When I say "Practicality, most of AI deployment will be useless" I mean two things. First is the wasteful use case - like the 'smart kitchen', where AI adjusts fridge settings based on the contents, or the oven scans what you put in it and sets the cook temperature and time. A lot of sensors and computing power to save a few pennies a year in spoiled or burned food. Even more insane is replacing all barcodes with RFID tags and having AI monitor what you're buying and creates your shopping list for you.

Secondly is AI inarguablely performs worse than a trained professional. The benefit is they're cheaper to train and retain than any employee.

Case in point ETAi - a Schneider developed AI that is supposed to continually update a driver's eta and availability. It is supposed to use only designated truck routes, take into account current and historical traffic patterns, and suggest park locations. It was also supposed to take into account a driver's running habits - usual start times, average speed, average breaks, etc - but that 'feature' kept breaking. ETAi is very accurate once a driver is within 3 hours of delivery. The further outside of that, the less accurate it is. On a multiday run, it is wildly wrong. Drivers with more than a year's experience easily out perform ETAi, but ETAi out performs new drivers. By letting ETAi control etas and nats, Schneider saves time and money developing new drivers - the penalty of new meat in the seat is greatly diminished. Schneider can also cut APMs and DMs, saving on salary far more than the increased costs due to missed customer expectations and decreased truck utilization. It's not BETTER than people, it's CHEAPER. As soon as AI looks like it will be cheaper than an employee, it will be deployed.

"We are nearing an inflection point of history - which means the potential for disaster in the short term is monumental."

An historical inflection point is a moment in time where things irrevocably change. Like the Norman conquest of England. Prior to that England and Scandinavia were integrally linked in trade and heredity. Afterwards, the focus turned to France - without which France likely would have resembled the Holy Roman Empire instead of a unified Nation. Or the introduction of moveable type which allowed the Protestant Reformation to grow faster than the Jesuits could kill them. In the early 1900s, most of Europe was at an inflection point. Population growth, urbanization, industrialization coupled with lack of suffrage and rising inequality created unrest. The leaders used various forms of Weltpolitk to control this unrest - in short using 'National Pride' to focus anger at other countries and thus undermine reform efforts. WWI was started by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, but the tinder had been growing for a decade. A couple million deaths later, Europe's economy was in taters and vast social changes were ushered in to prevent violent revolution.

That is where we're at today - a host of social and economic issues coupled with a looming existential threat to the job market. If we don't figure out a way to keep people employed then we face violent revolution.

 

Well said, but just pointing out a couple of things that I’ve stumbled across researching all this. They already know how we’re going to react and the progression of things. First will marvel at the newest gadgets in the things you can do for us, and make our life simpler. By the year 2027 there will be a revolution against it. When people realize it’s taking their jobs. By the millions and by entire industries at a time like never seen before in history. Nothing this fast has ever hit as far as technological change all at once. Then the government will come into play, which they already have a plan and will outline some type of universal income. Most experts in the field estimated up to 90% of the workforce will no longer be needed in 20 to 30 years and get this that number keeps moving closer and closer. That date I should say. Because this AI capability is advancing at faster than even the developers envisioned in their wildest dreams. It’s teaching itself. So here’s what you have a situation where the intelligence is there, but it needs to be applied to the physical, mechanical world. Eventually, you’re gonna have robots that are capable of basically all known knowledge and the ability to compute and figure all unknown knowledge anything that is knowledge based out there as a potential this thing will have the access to instantaneously, and it will be embodied in a physical machine that can basically take care of itself, enhance itself, and at that point, we basically are at the mercy of what we gave birth to. Notice at this stage, I don’t say created because we won’t be creating it. At that point, it will be creating itself. But we can still say we gave birth to it. When it reaches that point with everything I’ve researched, this is not a world. I want to live in at that point. Maybe my perception will change if I live long enough to see that but right now, no, thanks. I enjoy and prefer the human touch.

 

Well I can tell you I’ve googled a few things lately and AI response has been wrong. Once on the size of socket I needed for a axle nut on my car and another time I don’t remember exactly what it was. I don’t trust it anymore although I know a lot of people do.

 

So you're thesis is basically a future of the movie Idiocracy ("Secondly is AI inarguablely performs worse than a trained professional. The benefit is they're cheaper to train and retain than any employee.")? Where AI replaced a lot of jobs and people go on welfare and become dumb while the smartest people don't reproduce, but the AI is also kind of dumb because it performs worse than humans?

If so I disagree with all of that. AI will get better and new jobs will become available for humans even with AI, no different than the Industrial Revolution and all the new jobs that brought.

 

I don't think it'll be that bad. Yes the world will be changed like crazy by the time the year 2100 rolls around but humanity will still be alive and doing well.

 

The events of 9/11 provided an Overton window that ushered us into the Surveillance state. Data mining companies are making digital graphs of user's habits by monitoring our usage of smart products, cellphones and computers. As you guys already know: they're selling this info to advertisers. I don't envision anything as Draconian as Orwell's 1984 popping off as a result of this, but I do worry about being susceptible to the predation of bad actors who may gain access to this info via data breach. Social engineers are just the scum of the earth imo and AI has the potential to make them even more maniacal.

 

You believe in the tooth fairy? Automated trucks will never do what I do. Too complex. When things go wrong you need a person around plain and simple.

 

That's the same primitive thinking that lead to the cotton gin taking my great great great grandfather's job in the field. He thought that he'd always have a place picking in the plantations, but that ###### Eli Whitney...

 

What we do ain't picking cotton. Realistically most trucking jobs are safe from automation. Automated trucking is a very, very, very limited thing in a "controlled" situation that in no way resembles the real world. Artificial intelligence isn't up to the task and never will be. It's fine for book learning tasks or in a controlled environment (warehouse for example) but not out here doing anything in the dynamic real world. If you rode with me in my truck while I was doing my day to day job I could give you 10,000 reasons a minute why it would fail in any of a gazillion different scenarios that I (we as drivers) face every day and deal with as if it were nothing. All the things you read about what it's going to disrupt and take over are wishful thinking and bull #### mostly. So they can get more money from gullible venture capitalists. It's just propoganda.

 

####. You present a #### good argument, fam. If you ever need an able-bodied former truck driver to pick cotton in your field, send me a message.