New vs Used: some real life data for 2018

I bought an 2001 international with 700k miles 2 years ago for $13k. Over that time I have spent $45k including the purchase price (repairs, truck washes, upgrades and maintenance). I have done virtually all of the labor. Truck has traveled just shy of 200k miles. The cost of maintince in the last 9 months has gone to nearly 0 now that it's all fixed up.

The plan from the beginning was to spend what ever nessasary to get it in great mechanic condition as quickly as posible and reap the rewards over the next 3 years of the 5 year cycle. We will see?

I have a thread on here about my adventures (new or old asked again?) However if I didn't have the shop and tools to make repairs myself brand new would have been the only choice! The company I'm leased to has 2013 and 14 trucks and after 250k miles they have been very expensive to operate.

There are several ways to go here but for my situation I wanted a low initial cost and see if the truck could support itself. The truck has covered every cost with the revenue generated. I trust my truck now to be reliable and I can fix virtually anything myself now. In those 2 years I have had 1 tow and 2 roadside repairs I should have cought before they happened. No fault of the truck.

 

As much as your work is great for the layman, it is flawed from your data source and should be taking with a grain of salt.

The flaw is this - the prices you derived from truck paper do not reflect the actual value of the truck nor the actual sale price.

The issue with this, excluding depreciation which is not a factor, is the skewing of the end result to make an informed decision.

Most should not look at the resale value when they are holding long term, it is kind of futile to try to plan a sale after five years and expect a ROI from the truck that could not really be counted on to hold any value.

As for the myth of "but the depreciation hit in value of driving a new truck off the lot is also pretty steep." it doesn't happen, because the costs of purchase goes beyond the actual value of the truck on things that are added into the bottom line (FET, 2290, capital related costs).

The other side of the coin is that the truck is a tool, it depreciates because that's the nature of business. NO tool is worth more than its purchase price when new, sorry but it isn't true. Once that truck gets used hauling, there is a base value and an intrinsic value to the owner. The latter is where people get tripped up on, they think just because they would pay X for a worn out truck, that others would and put it up for sale, which is why TP can't be counted on for solid trends or an indication of value.

 

The ultimate insult is paying for a new truck truck and having it spend more time in the shop than a old one. Sounds like a good way to get the truck repoed. Not sure the copywrited data covered that

 

I see analysis paralysis in the horizon....lmao

Save your work for as you go along (I did, I'm a numbers nerd too)...and grab yourself a CDL first.

It will save you a whole lotsa headache, and actually focus you on what to get as a 1-truck owner (if that's your short term plan)

It will also allow you to actually do test drives and weed out turds (which come in all price ranges).

Finally, getting a truck on a loan, will only pressure you to put it on the road, which might lead to irrational decision on hiring, or even executing game plan within the regulations.

After all my "analysis", I bought an 18yr old truck, paid cash, and have not looked back. Every month I'm not making a payment, I'm socking it away for myself (not the bank)

Oh, and pay attention to what @rank just said...

Good luck!

 

As has been mentioned, the advertised price in the Truck Paper bears little or no reality to it's actual selling price.
The second flaw in the assumption is that the initial purchase price has any real bearing on the cost of operation of the truck. For that you need 2 other numbers, interest cost of the loan, which varies widely between credit and non credit worthy customers, and the cost of maintenance over the ownership period.

Add all three numbers up, acquisition, maintenance cost and interest, divide by miles driven.
Of course the problem will be you will never be able to get an accurate maintenance number in advance no matter how you try, it will always be a guess, and wrong guesses on that number have put many an owner operator out of business.

 

And %12 FET right off the lot. That can be a big number on top of the purchase price too.

 

It's all gravey with an old truck until you have to go to an actual shop other than something like ta/petro for needed work and they tell you they can't work you in for 3-4 days and then you realize the trucks old and you'll be back next month or maybe even next week. There lies the problem with old equipment shops stay busy almost never can they get you right in. On the flip side it's rainbows and unicorns with a new truck until your one box goes out just after the two year after treatment system warranty goes out and the shop hands you a $12,000 estimate.

You can run all the estimates and simulations you want your taking a risk either way that's the nature of business and there aren't any crystal balls. Make sure you're ready financially pick the business model that suits you best and take a stab at.

 

One of the big differences I saw it in the price of trucks when I looked at it a couple months ago, where the specs. A truck with an 18 speed and a 550 horse Cummins Is worth about $25,000 more after five years.

I've been averaging over $20,000 dollars a year in repairs to keep my old girl on the road. Fortunately we have 3 to 4 days off a week to get work done. Otherwise downtime would kill us.

A new truck with warranties will have less downtime, less repairs, higher depreciation, higher insurance, more interest, but also higher fuel economy.

 

My maintenance last year was $26,000. Easy to do when one trip to Caterpillar cost $5400.

I noticed a little blue smoke on acceleration after idling all night last week. Now I’m dreading looking inside the turbo outlet because I have a feeling there might be a seal going. Pretty sure the turbos are original and that would be another thing I’d have to get done at Cat. I don’t have enough ### on me to get the big one off the motor. I’m guessing probably a $10k bill on that.