Been lurking for 4 years...decided to post. Think I’m going to buy..

Look at the long haul of the stock market. If someone put in 25k 20 years ago it would be all good. If they put money in 40 years ago, same thing they would be rich today. The stock market has only gone up in the long run over time. We are taking a chance and hope it keeps going up and the economy keeps growing.

 

Yeah that's all true but you missed the point.

If you put your money in the stock market in 1926, it made great gains until October of 1929 and then went further downhill.

Chances are the leading stocks you had your money in tanked or nearly tanked.

It wasn't until 1955 when the stock market and the hard assets of the country returned to those pre-October 1929 value levels, that was the official end of the depression, not 1941 or 1945.

So there are two things we can ask ourselves ...

first is this simple question - can it happen again?

Sure it can, the markets have taken a dive before and will one day again.

The key to getting this answer is this simple fact - the markets, all of them, are emotionally run. Now the NYSE is getting more and more mechanical, the machines are the cause more often than not to a dip in the market than human emotion but then the machines are programed to take advantage of those short sales which leads to more ... short sales.

second thing that can be ask - can you afford to lose the money?

Well I don't know, I can right now, but when I took a hit in 2003, I couldn't but did.

So while you are 100% right, you have to have the caveat about the facts added into it.

 

2014 KW T680 with 500k miles on ISX15 won’t even sell for $42,000 around here. Nobody is buying anything unless it’s new trucks.

 

EGR Starts from 2004 & up.
DPF Starts from 2008 & up.
DEF Starts from 2010 & up.
2007 and older are most reliable, i own 4 of them. So this is from experience, not just from others.

 

Right, but your speaking truck model year.
That's why I said epa year. (engine)
'03-'06 is egr ('04-'06 IVA, VVA Caterpillar)
'07-'09 (IH went till '11)is egr & dpf,
'10- current has def too
So the 2010 d16 Volvo he was considering has a '09 epa engine with no def. Either way, it's probably a bucket..

I deal with non of the nonsense either. ddec ii here..

 

First and foremost - stocks can and do crash. I think that a major difference these days as opposed to 1929 is that a lot of people have automatic deductions straight into the market either as a 401 K ,Roth IRA or personal . Doesn't matter if the market is up or down a bit - same deduction every week . I truly believe this is why the Bull market has been so lengthy .. But again , markets can and do crash.. It WILL happen again !!

 

Ok gotcha

 

When or if the stock market crashes again your probably going to have bigger problems then losing some money in the stock market. People won't have a job like 1929. So people won't be making any money. The goal is when you actually need the money. People start to move the money out of the stock market so you don't lose when it drops. When your younger you can ride out the rise and fall of the stock market because your looking for the long term numbers.. If the stock market crashes everyone is in trouble. Because nobody will have any money to buy anything.

 

It would be a whole different ball game than the 1929 crash, way more people now and back then money was not near as important to people as it is now,

 

I do think that it would be good for the market to drop a bit and take a breather . Too much over confidence right now in my opinion.