Covid-19 and taking social responsibility

Maybe...Maybe not...The point is, there is no need to lie about it now. Thats the media's job.

 

1.8–3.4

If you are accusing me of a lie please back that up with some quotes.

Note this table from the document I provided. if we don't run out of ventilators and hospital beds there is no reason to think that the death rate in the US will change much. In the US the overall mortality rate is between 1.8-3.4%. As the federal government didn't have FEMA start coordinating the efforts between the states we actually don't have as much information as if they had actually leveraged National Incident Management System (NIMS) like they make us all train for.

But at this moment...with what we know, the overall death rate will stay the same or go up and despite having less than 1/4 the population we will have more dead than China by the end of the summer.



There is no indication that we won't follow Italy and Spain into a spiraling problem and exceed most of our hospital capacity which means that the deaths could be 4.9-20% in the worst cases.

This is not a "lie" but a reality if people don't start taking this seriously. My state is the worst in the nation for doing so. As we only have hospital beds for 0.2% of the population in my county we will probably be one of the places with the highest mortality rates.

There is no need to trust the media if you have a basic understanding of math and statistics.

 

There are no similar numbers of deaths to date as far as China is concerned. They have 3 time the deaths as we have. The CDC have never said otherwise.The OP falsely claimed that we surpassed China in deaths.

 

As you said we've tested virtually noone. Using the current known cases number as the total number of cases to make your rate of fatality calculation is artificially boosting the rate of fatality by 5 to 10 times.

 

Ah I see, you aren't thinking the way that logistic growth works.


While both the US and China are underreporting deaths, note how this chart with a logarithmic scale of deaths is a curve reaching what appears to be a limit





If you look at the same for the US, where I added the straight red line you will see how it is still curving up...or growing faster and faster.



If you prefer a linear graph scale you will see how total deaths in China are an S shaped curve or a sigmoid. This is a sign of logistic growth which is how viruses, wheat crops and many other functions in nature tend to work..



Now let's look at the graph that should scare you, which is the US graph in a linear scale.



As the average COVID-19 patients average time on ventilator for 11 - 21 days the OP's claim will be true next week or two.

So with that in mind what does that change? We are a Republic so we can't resort to the same methods that China used to flatten their curve...what do we do except pretend that the media is lying to us?

 

Hopefully my last post helped out here but you are too stuck on static numbers. The slope of the lines really makes the exact numbers a moot point. Us humans tend to be really really bad with intuitions around exponential functions.

Note that my cited link to the CDC discusses that and their numbers were marked as conservative. Note that is someone dies of the virus but was not tested that is also not captured in the numbers. So it is quite possible that we have under-reported deaths but 5 to 10 times.

Once again if you understand logistic growth curves the graphs should give you pause.

 

In history over and over and over, the USA gets #####slapped.

It will be a while ... but we usually crank up to a warfooting and go all out balls to the wall. For example the Germans were sinking ships in the Atlantic in about 1941 or so they called that the happy time. But the problem is this. The Germans have totally and utterly lost the battle of the Atlantic because the United States was showing up to work at the shipyards and building 60 ships in 60 days flat. They launched 62. More than was sunk. All of the planes, tanks, trucks, food, fuel in particular and everything else desperately needed for making war was all replaced in that time period. Loaded into the new shipping and sent across with ever increasing escorts with improving technology. It would be a few more years yet but the war was already won.

when Germany was defeated we within 6 weeks essentially started to transfer upwards of 10 million and all of their equiptment straight towards Japan to fight them there. But it is fortunately that was not necessary. Enough was enough.

 

That all looks good "on paper" but, as of right now, China has 3 times the number of deaths as we have. We have not surpassed them in deaths as the OP has suggested.

 

We have per capita...and we will pass in per country numbers within two weeks. Despite China having 1,386,000,000 people, or about 1 Billion more than the US.

But this is a red herring as it really doesn't matter. Really what we need is a graph that starts to look like an S. Until that happens the situation will just get exponentially worse.