Is there really a trucker shortage?

I think you're running into three problems.

1) experienced drivers have been lied to for so long, so egregiously about pay that they simply don't believe it when you tell them "$86,000" per year. That's why I pay cash (it's all on the books, all taxes paid, I just get cash from the bank to pay). It changes the discussion from a hypothetical to a reality. Minimum weekly income comes under the same heading -- clarity and security.

2) No benefits is a credibility problem. Trucking has a credibility problem as it is, but not offering good, solid benefits is a red flag to potential hires (and especially their spouses). In today's competitive hiring environment, full time employment comes with benefits.

3) "this is not the job". If you try to pound a square peg into round holes, the peg is going to avoid that experience. The current "three weeks out, three days at home" OTR model is relatively new, and was made possible due to the chronic under employment from the '90's through the Trump presidency. People are no longer underemployed. Trucking is still acting as if it's the employer of last resort, and there is no longer a significant pool of underemployed to draw from.

We are so used to "the OTR model" in this industry we don't think about it. But from an employee perspective it is absurd. Very few married people, and even fewer married people with children at home, would even consider being home about 10% of their time. Unless people have no other choices would they sign up for the working conditions typical OTR companies offer.

 

Good points. The no benefits certainly applies to my situation. I think I need to reduce pay, and introduce benefits. For whatever reason, people still don’t want to just handle health care themselves through healthcare.gov

I’ve noticed that even home weekend is not very desirable for most anymore. (What we do) What’s strange is so many drivers here in TTR all the time talk about being gone weeks at a time.

It definitely doesn’t help though that there is a trucking company on every street corner around here. Very difficult to stand out.

 

I don't think reducing pay and introducing benefits is going to help that much. A driver with 3 years experience will make 56 cpm at Schneider, home every weekend or 58 cpm if they stay out at least 3 weeks. Most drivers run about 125,000 miles a year, so you're looking at $70,000 base. To get the same health plan but replace Schneider's contribution would cost about $12,000 a year, 401K match is another $2,000 a year (at least). Overall your pay package is in the same range as Schneider's, maybe a bit higher once your guys get past starting. I'm on track to do about $98,000 this year working 5 day weeks, plus health benefits, plus the 401K match, plus the 5% off my cell phone plan.

I also can't blame people for not wanting to go through healthcare.gov. It was a painful experience when it started and hasn't gotten much better. Adding in all the rhetoric about "ending Obamacare" makes getting your own health insurance more than a little scary. Having glimpsed at the hassle of running a company sponsored health care plan, I wouldn't want that head ache. Especially when you realize that for companies with less than 50 employees it's often more cost effective to have the employee get their own insurance. You're darned if you do, darned if you don't.

One of the things I've found with being home every weekend is that I often need to take days off work to get stuff done. It was easier when I'd run 3-4 weeks and then take a week off. There are trade offs either way.

 

Unemployment is back under pre-pandemic levels, but workforce participation is down to 61% from 64%.

Shortly before the pandemic my mom's department was restructured and she lost her job. While able to work, she has no real need to work and has not sought employment. There are a lot of people in their 60's who left the workforce in the last year. Even without the pandemic, a lot of people put off retirement after 2008. By 2018 those worker's retirement accounts had recovered and they started leaving the workforce. The pandemic accelerated that trend.

A lot of families were two income households. When the pandemic came down, they needed to do something for childcare. In many cases the parent who was furloughed or laid off started staying at home and they discovered that the second income wasn't really worth it.

After the 2008 crash, companies did more with less. When an employee would leave, the company would try to shift their duties to other employees instead of hiring a replacement. That only works to a point, and we past that point several years ago. When you add in the trend that millennials and gen z are less and less willing to be abused by their employers, , companies have been forced to ramp up hiring.

As Adam Smith said, the only true commodity is labor. Right now it's a commodity in short supply. It's basic capitalism, but the capitalists don't like the game when they don't hold all the cards. Ending the 'driver shortage' is simple - change entry level driving wages from $55,000 to $80,000. Traditionally drivers made more than most "inside" jobs, but that's no longer the case. Richelieu Foods in Beaver Dam, WI has raised their starting pay by 50% over the last two years. It's not that companies can't pay these wages, they just don't want to.

 

See, this post is for all those who think that paying more money is the answer....if 86k ain't bringing in drivers, then I can only attribute the shortage to an unattractive lifestyle at this point.

 

I don't think changing the pay scale will work even for entry level drivers. Once the psychological aspect of trucking takes over certain folks' minds, it's a wrap. People want the big money, but they want a normal lifestyle to go with it. Because of capitalism, the average American has to give up too much to make a living.

 

I'm currently running a "local" account. About half of the guys I've trained this year quit during their week of training because they did the math and discovered they could make the same or more working any warehouse job. Trucking is a lifestyle, no doubt about it. What attracted guys "back in the day" was you could make a whole bunch of money - more than working in a factory and much more than a basic warehouse job. The trucking lifestyle comes with a cost, if the paycheck doesn't cover costs, workers find a different job.

I would also disagree with "Because of capitalism, the average American has to give up too much to make a living." I would argue that most of our economic system trends towards a mercantilism paradigm rather than a capitalism paradigm. If Adam Smith published today he would be labeled as a "Socialist" for his belief that profits should be low and wages should be high as this maximizes overall wealth.
The Equalizing Hand: Why Adam Smith Thought the Market Should Produce Wealth Without Steep Inequality | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core

 

Hmmm......a lot of people say they could make more money working in the warehouse than trucking. I suppose that's true depending on location. Where I live, that would be lie. 60 to 70k trucking is very doable with experience. I've never made more in any other line of work, but that's just me.

 

The Westrock plant I'm working out of is hiring inexperienced forklift drivers at $20 an hour with time and a half over 40. On a 60 hour work week you're looking at $70,000 a year. They're not averaging 60 hour weeks (closer to 50) so when you compare gross earnings it's not close. But when you start comparing hourly earnings the forklift gig pays as much if not more. Once you add in commutes, it's about a wash.

Right now we are experiencing the comeuppance of 30 years of wage stagnation - lower workforce participation rates and wage-push inflation. What annoys me the most is that is exactly what economists warned about 10 years ago.

 

Where is that Westrock located?