So What the Rebound Look Like?

I'm more curious to see how low the bottom is. Don't think we're close. Rebound won't start till after quite a few have hung up the keys.

 

Rebound won't happen for a while.

Interest rates will go up some more, inflation will go up and we will then see a decline in asset values which triggers a depression.

we still have too much capacity, the labor shortage has masked this a bit but we haven't had too many who haven't been going belly up as we would normally do, mainly because of the covid money still floating around and accessible to some.

We are in economically poor shape, like we were in 1921 and early 70's.

 

Problem is prices are still decent compared to when I came in 2019. I was able to make it pretty easy back then with no experience and a truck that broke down a lot with a inframe done the first year.

I had to work a little harder and smarter to stay a float than I do now. So we are a lot further from the bottom than I wish we where. Gonna get pretty bad first of the year I was told by one of the brokers I work with. Thinking next year will be the worst and maybe move forward in 24.

 

Rebound will be happening and nobody will talk about it for several months. I mean back in June 2020 it was name your number time but if you look on this forum the sky was still falling for a while after that. If you're in the game already you'll know it fairly quick. If you're on the sidelines looking to buy overpriced equipment and you read in the Wall Street Journal there's a trucking boom going on you already missed the boat. It's like anything else you gotta get in when it's down and grind it. You'll miss half or more of the boom if you wait until the word's out. Now that said, don't get in it if you ain't got cash to burn or you gonna crash and burn.

 

No rebound. All crash.

 

Rebound defined: return to normal crappy rates. Mediocre at best in the overall picture. Aside from the recent fluke of very high rates. There’s usually just small seasonal peaks and valleys. The few short lived peaks before Covid could hardly be called a rebound. It will probably be a slow steady increase, after hitting bottom. I think we’re closer to the bottom than most realize. A return to somewhat normalcy will be so slow, it won’t even be noticed. Rates would probably stay about where they’re at now, if not for the interest rate hikes. I don’t think the hikes will do much to curb inflation. The only possible result will be shrinking the economy to meet available supply. Causing a recession in the process. Supply chain still in disarray, aggravated by worker shortages is what’s causing inflation. By the time the supply chain gets running smooth again, the economy will be in big trouble. Then the Fed can save the day, cutting interest rates a little bit at a time. Just enough to grow the economy at a slow steady rate. That’s the ideal scenario for long term stability. Insuring the financial credit market survives and flourishes, with just enough growth to keep the economy going. That’s the good news. Seriously. Long term, the ability to cut rates will keep the economy from completely crashing. A big boom isn't going to happen. For a short while rates were finally what they should have been all along. There’s no shortage of freight. Just too much capacity in the spot market. Megas may not be affected as much. They also rely on the spot market. Some as much as 50%. As far as them having Contracts in place. They may have a 1 year Contract signed, but probably with a clause that either party can end the Contract at anytime, for any reason. That’s why things change so fast in this Business. Too bad we missed out on the economic boom before Covid hit. Even with higher fuel, and inflation, rates are better than pre Covid. Their only bad compared to the recent short lived boom. Those who jumped in with high overhead, hoping for another boom, might as well quit now, it’s going to stay about the same. This is about normal overall, compared to the last 20-25yrs.

 

Interest rates are going up 75 points next session, where you been?

 

^^^^ This.

To answer OP question…IMO another year of down times. If not 14 or 15 months.

 

Everyone everywhere all saying there is going to be a big recession or depression in 23. Really makes me think we are in for a big economic gains in the future.