Trucking in 10 years

Is is possible to speculate what the industry will be like in 10 years? It sounds like it is harder and harder to make a buck trucking as the years have gone by. How can the whole enterprise of trucking keep going with fuel rising, and economy changing? I mostly wonder because I would love to get into trucking after the kids are on their own, but I don't feel like there will be much left to get into, even though the companies keep saying how good the future of trucking will be.
I tend to think it will go back to rails dominating the long haul, and smaller trucks running the freight from hubs. Everything I've seen indicates this won't happen though--trucks getting more comfortable--presumably for longer hauls? Requests for more and more drivers--I realize this is probably just to glut the market and have you guys runnin' for minimum wage. If you listen to government and industry, it sounds like it will be status quo for the foreseeable future. Anyone with experience been thinking what the future will look like for truckers?

-Privateer

 

Thanks for the insight so far guys. I guess in my mind, there are so many unknowns about the future. First, I feel like we are due for a depression in the next 20 years. I mean the kind where the average man can barely survive, not like the normal recession that hurts people who have over-extended themselves. Some probably think we are almost there, but it can get so much worse. Fuel prices are the other factor. In theory, the fuels we are using now can only go so high, because there has to be a price where alternative fuels can be produced at the same cost. That is why I think the arabs better be careful, or they will price themselves out of the market. Especially if there is a technological break through. I am sure they always keep prices just below this threshold. Like you say, trucks will always be needed. Even if it looks like the land of Mad Max out there, someone will have the balls to armor up some rigs, mount some machine guns, and get a load to market.

 

You know, I am actually surprised that company drivers aren't already required to run in teams. Why should the truck ever be idle? I think a lot of things can change in 10 years in the trucking industry, and in 100 yrs!? I really don't think trucking will be considered labor fit for humans. The trucks will be completely autonomous by then. We will all work as data nodes on some huge supercomputer network. "How was your day honey?", "Oh, must've been a tough one because my brain is TIRED!"

I must admit, that my kids won't be grown up in ten years, but I figured if in ten years trucking looks a certain way, then it will only change half as much in the next five remaining until I can get started. So, a long time to go for me. Right now I live a life 180 degrees from a trucker's. I almost never go anywhere, ever. Sometimes into town for food and supplies, but I have children (one autistic), and some animals, and I can't leave. If I did try to be a driver now, everything here would go to hell. I know being home even weekends wouldn't be enough to keep this place going. My wife would not be able to take up the slack. So, I'll stay here and 'dream' for now.. I know that nothing is ever as good as you think it will be, but there are days that sitting in a 6 hour traffic jam would be better than being here--mostly from the autism.

Switching gears again, I still think the rails will start to step up their role in transport. Just because they can't deliver a load on time now, doesn't mean that they won't be able to in the future. The rails are government funded also, so they can just take our money to make all the necessary upgrades to everything. Isn't oil supposed to be on the downward slope of supply in the next 10-20 years? That's a big window, but I don't think anyone is in a hurry to tell us how long it has left. We do have a lot of coal left, (i've heard up to 2000 years) and can make diesel from that at a cost a bit more than what we pay now. All these things drive the economy, which trucking services. I feel like the slightest disturbance to energy could really effect how many trucks there are out there.