Dec 25-26, 2012 Snow, Ice, Storms, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL

tues forecast

 

We're looking forward to a white Christmas here. Everyone be safe traveling through. They should get I40 cleared off pretty well.

 

Tracking the Major Winter Storm on my SmartCast, going to effect everyone from OK to NY. Here is the latest that I am seeing.

SmartCast Analysis for 25 Dec/01Z to 26 Dec 01Z

First the winter side of the storm system:
Currently Targeting the area of Tinker to McAlester this hour. My model showing the heaviest snow along this corridor.

McAlester Region: Tracking the snow to begin around 18Z, with periods of heavy snow, with snowfall rates of 1.3" per hour. In addition, winds look to increase to around 30MPH along the same timeframe, so look for blowing snow. Right now looking at 8.5" of snow in this area.

Tinker AFB/OKC Region: Showing a period of mixed precip from 06Z to 11Z, then changing to all snow by 12Z. Looking at visibilities down to less than ½ mile, and snowfall rates of up to 1.1" per hour possible. Right now looking max of 7.1" of snow accumulation in this area. In addition, looking at winds gusting to 35 to 40mph, which will create temporary blizzard conditions in this area.

Vance AFB Region: Looking to be on the fringe of the snow, but still looking at 3.1" of snow possible. Snow will begin around 09Z, and will be heaviest from 16Z to 20Z. In addition, winds will be gusting up to 35MPH during this time, so look for reduce visibility and blowing snow.

Damaging Wind Potential:
Hobart, Lawton, Lubbock, Childress, and Clinton are all targeted for winds 45 to 50MPH winds during the next 24 hours. In addition, looking at snowfall from 1" to 3" possible. This will also cause tempo conditions of reduce vis and blowing snow.

Severe Wx Potential:
My model currently tracking the highest instability areas in the Lufkin to Lake Charles area. Looking at over 65% chance for tornadic events in this area. In addition, forecasted hail projected around 2.3" to 2.6" and convective winds of 55 to 60MPH Possible. In addition, heavy rainfall is possible in these areas with precip totals of 1.3 to 1.9" possible.

 

Good luck tommorrow, I think S. LA to MS is going to be a prime target. Let us know what you find, be safe and happy hunting.

 

My Analysis for 25 Dec/05Z to 26 Dec 05Z

First the winter side of the storm system:
Currently Targeting the area of Tinker to McAlester this hour. My model showing the heaviest snow along this corridor.

McAlester Region: Tracking the snow to begin around 18Z, with periods of heavy snow, with snowfall rates of 1.3" per hour. In addition, winds look to increase to around 30MPH along the same timeframe, so look for blowing snow. Right now looking at 7.9" of snow in this area.

Tinker AFB/OKC Region: Showing a period of mixed precip from 06Z to 11Z, then changing to all snow by 12Z. Looking at visibilities down to less than ½ mile, and snowfall rates of up to 1.1" per hour possible. Right now looking max of 5.7" of snow accumulation in this area. This is down from 7.1" prediction on the 01Z run. In addition, looking at winds gusting to 35 to 40mph, which will create temporary blizzard conditions in this area.

Vance AFB Region: Looking to be on the fringe of the snow, but still looking at 3.5" of snow possible. Snow will begin around 09Z, and will be heaviest from 16Z to 20Z. In addition, winds will be gusting up to 35MPH during this time, so look for reduce visibility and blowing snow.

Dallas Region: Tracking some strong thunderstorms pushing through the area from 16Z to 21Z, then changing to snow, with a potential for localized 1-2" across the area. In addition, looking at winds gusting up to 44MPH from 22Z to 04Z.
Damaging Wind Potential:

Hobart, Lawton, Lubbock, Childress, and Clinton are all targeted for winds 45 to 50MPH winds during the next 24 hours. In addition, looking at snowfall from 1" to 3" possible. This will also cause tempo conditions of reduce vis and blowing snow.

Severe Wx Potential:

05Z SmartCast run is zoningin on the Lake Charles region, with a 76% of some tornadic event within the area. In addition, forecasted hail projected around 2.3" to 2.6" and convective winds of 55 to 68MPH Possible. In addition, heavy rainfall is possible in these areas with precip totals of 1.3 to 1.9" possible.

 

Update for 10Z

First the winter side of the storm system:

Currently Targeting McAlester to Little Rock to Hot Springs as the area with the Heaviest Snow potential. Model indicating 6-10" of snow possible in this corridor.
McAlester Region: Forecasting snow to begin around 17Z, with periods of heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1.1" possible til 00Z, then snow will slowly decrease. Winds will increase to around 30MPH from 19Z through 10Z. Forecasting a max snow potential of 8.1" til 10Z.
Little Rock Region: Looking for rain from 19Z to 02Z, then mixing and changing to all snow by 03Z to 10Z. Looking for periods of heavy snow during this timeframe with snowfall rates of 1.8" per hour possible during this time frame. Forecasting a max snow potential of 10.1" in and around the Little Rock area. In addition, winds will increase to around 40MPH from 01Z to 06Z, which will cause reduced visibilities and blowing snow.
Tinker AFB/OKC Region: Forecasting a period of freezing rain and ice pellets through 16Z. Looking at around .1" or less of ice accumulation. Then converting to snow after 16Z, with an additional 2-4" possible across this region. Winds will also increase after 14Z through 00Z, with gusts up to 38MPH possible.
Vance AFB Region: Continued snow, with periods of moderate snowfall. Looking at a general 2-3" across this region, with winds increasing to 35MPH from 15Z to 22Z.
Dallas Region: Forecasting thunderstorms from 12Z to 20Z, then mixing and changing to snow after 20Z. Looking at 1-2" of accumulation possible from 21Z to 03Z. Winds will also increase to 35 to 42MPH from 20Z to 03Z.
Jonesborro and Hot Springs Region: Looking at potential for .3" of ice accumulation followed by 2-4" of snow accumulation possible in the next 24 hours.
Severe Wx Potential:
Current severe weather zones are Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, and Lafayette regions. Indicating around 73% chance of tornadic storms in the next 24 hours. In addition, hail up to 2.8" and convective wind gusts up to 73 to 75MPH possible.
Esler Regional, Mobile, Gulfport, Hattiesburg is another zone with 55 to 60% chance of tornadic storms in their regions. In addition, hail up to 2.5" and wind gusts of up to 60-65MPH possible today.

 

I just watched the local news and weather here in the Middle Tennessee area, and the have blizzard warnings out from Paducah,Ky south to Memphis,Tn. Everyone be safe and have a very Merry Christmas and A Happy New Year.

 

Update for 13Z

First the winter side of the storm system:
Currently Targeting McAlester to Little Rock to Hot Springs as the area with the Heaviest Snow potential. Model indicating 6-10" of snow possible in this corridor.
McAlester Region: Forecasting snow to begin around 17Z, with periods of heavy snow with snowfall rates of 1.1" possible til 01Z, then snow will slowly decrease. Winds will increase to around 30MPH from 19Z through 10Z. Forecasting a max snow potential of 9.5 " til 10Z.
Little Rock Region: Looking for rain til 02Z, then mixing and changing to all snow by 03Z to 13Z. Looking for periods of heavy snow during this timeframe with snowfall rates of 1.8" per hour possible during this time frame. Forecasting a max snow potential of 7" in and around the Little Rock area. In addition, winds will increase to around 40MPH from 01Z to 06Z, which will cause reduced visibilities and blowing snow.
Tinker AFB/OKC Region: Forecasting a period of freezing rain and ice pellets through 16Z. Looking at around .1" or less of ice accumulation. Then converting to snow after 16Z, with an additional 2-4" possible across this region. Winds will also increase after 14Z through 00Z, with gusts up to 38MPH possible.
Vance AFB Region: Continued snow, with periods of moderate snowfall. Looking at a general 2-3" across this region, with winds increasing to 35MPH from 15Z to 22Z.
Dallas Region: Forecasting thunderstorms from 12Z to 20Z, then mixing and changing to snow after 20Z. Looking at 1-2" of accumulation possible from 21Z to 03Z. Winds will also increase to 35 to 42MPH from 20Z to 03Z.
Jonesborro Region: Looking at rain/snow and freezing rain through 08Z, then shifting to snow. Looking at .3" of sleet and freezing rain, then 1-2" of snow accumulations. Through 13Z.
Severe Wx Potential:
Current severe weather zones are Baton Rouge, Lake Charles, and Lafayette regions. Indicating around 84% chance of tornadic storms in the next 24 hours. In addition, hail up to 2.9" and convective wind gusts up to 73 to 75MPH possible.
Natchez, MS, Alexandria Esler Regional, Mobile, Gulfport, Hattiesburg is another zone with 55 to 60% chance of tornadic storms in their regions. In addition, hail up to 2.5" and wind gusts of up to 60-65MPH possible today.