Can oilfield keep going?? FYI:

One has to be careful with Mr. Buffet.... He also owns Union Tank Car, which manufactures the tank cars... orders have been placed, stock prices have jumped, but no cars have been manufactured, and it will be over a year before the first "new" cars roll off the manufacturing line.

Lets put that 5000 cars in perspective... total tank cars available to ship crude, according to DOT, 98,000. approximately 2,000 of those cars can no longer carry crude, due to changes by DOT on car classifications, issued in Fed 2014. Dot also reduced the speed of trains carrying crude oil through population centers to 40mph from 50mph. Dot is also requiring the shippers to test the oil for embedded volatile gas, before loading. The gas lowers the ignition point for the oil, and since there is no place to sell the gas embedded in the oil from the Bakken, many producers are NOT separating the gas from the oil before shipping.

And now the regulatory battle begins, with Mr. Buffet and the AAR (Association of American railroads), wanting stronger tank cars, so that their trains my travel at higher speeds, and the shippers who lease the cars, and the DOT on the other side.

And if Mr. Buffet, and the AAR get their recommendations, then 39,000 rail cars can no longer carry crude.

 

That sounds lovely, especially since we're backed up as it is up here. Plenty of oil and no way for it to move.

 

Watch out about stories of wells falling off too quick. They look at a well list of 100 wells and pick a few out that are slowing and say they are all slowing fast. Yes there are wells that crank for a year then die but many more keep pumping strong. I'd like to see a story that compares the two, not one that just focuses on the wells that are slowing too fast. What percentage of wells slow too fast? And if that's the case then why is drilling increasing? If the drilling companies see wells dying quickly I would think they would stop drilling or slow way down.

 

Even the drillers in North Dakota have stated, they have to drill more wells just to keep production even. The fall off has surprised them all, going by their annual reports. The drilling companies will make their profit, even with the fall off, it is the lease holders and investors that are going to be left holding the dry holes.

The “Dakota Express Pipeline”, proposed in June 2013 by Koch Pipeline, will not be built as reported by Koch in January 2014. Why, they could not get commitments from the producers to keep the pipeline at 60% capacity. Even the producers are unwilling to sign contracts for future production.

My comments about wells falling off comes from annual reports, news stories and personal experience here in Wyoming.

The fact that the oil companies will have to keep drilling to maintain current production is good news for truck drivers, just for how long will it last?

And Mr. Buffet will make a profit from his investments in the region.

 

I think the falloff on these new wells is inevitable. The newer drilling and frac'ing technologies produce more oil, but the production of these wells has modernized as well. The reservoir is the same size whether you are getting all of it, or a smaller portion of it, whether it's being pumped fast or slow...the amount of oil available from that pool is still the same. Yes, the new wells fall off, but (in my opinion) it's because they are able to get the oil out of the ground a lot faster now than in the past. The result is that, with the combination of new drilling technologies and new production technologies, they are accessing more oil and producing it faster than ever before. The efficiency is there.

Supply and demand controls everything. As long as the prices stay up, there is nothing to worry about. If the supply begins to outpace demand, the prices will drop and that's when you will see the downside. It hasn't been but just a few years ago that oil was selling for $40/barrel. That would shut down 90% of the production you see today.

 

"Supply and demand controls everything. As long as the prices stay up, there is nothing to worry about. If the supply begins to outpace demand, the prices will drop and that's when you will see the downside. It hasn't been but just a few years ago that oil was selling for $40/barrel. That would shut down 90% of the production you see today."


This is the just of how I see it too and this is not even getting into how the Market is controlled and manipulated... I assume the price will continue to be held as high as possible for as long as possible and as usual, by any means necessary = $

Only God knows how long it will be for. Price could stay higher than cost to produce for 2 days, could be 20 years...but we will still be using oil

 

need to throw in government regulations also, that certain investors use to their advantage to make more money for their portfolios... looking at mr Buffet who is manipulating the whole controversy about the rails and tank cars to make himself a nice profit, no matter which way the regulations fall.

 

This is true. Some also consider this 'production cost' cause the 'permission' is always bought... just sayin

 

And remember that oil is a finite resource and the world consumes 100 million barrels a day and that number is only going higher. As demand rises the amount of oil decreases. The price will only go higher

 

actually the amount of recoverable oil is outpacing consumption.... It is amazing where they can find oil... and many scientists disagree with oil being a finite resources....

It does not matter for our lifetime, or our grandchildren's life times.... the current KNOWN recoverable oil will far out last us all. Current recoverable US reserves top 32 billion barrels. that is 320 years of world consumption, not including the rest of the worlds reserves.