T Boone Pickens says $150 oil in 2010.
The EU Commissioner of Energy (= to US Secretary of Energy) Andris Piebalgs says "Be prepared for $200 oil in 2011".
Why ?
Peak Oil points to the statistics from IEA and EIA. The highest month for conventional oil (defined as black goo that comes out of a hole in the ground) production, world wide, was May 2005. December 2007 was close, but not a new record.
"Other Liquids", ethanol, natural gas liquids, tar sands production is up. But these take LOTS of energy of energy to produce (except NGL) and do not work as well as good old crude oil.
Meanwhile, oil exporters use more at home for the domestic market. In 2006, Russia increased oil production by over 3%. But domestic consumption went up 6%, so exports dropped -0.2%.
Last year Saudi domestic oil consumption went up 15.9% because they started burning crude oil for electricity. Most years, demand only grows 6% or so.
Looking forward, a Russian Minister of Natural resources said that Russian oil production (biggest in the world, Saudi #2) will drop in 2008. Mexican oil production is falling off a cliff (they supplied 10% of all the oil we used in 2005, they may export zero in a half dozen years).
There is good evidence, which the Saudis deny, that the biggest oil field in the world (North Ghawar) is about to water out. But Saudi production has declined in the last couple of years.
Any new production (like that large field found off Brazil) will take a minimum of 7 years to get into production. And it is an open question if declines in old oil fields will be larger than new production coming on-line.
In any case there will be no major increase in oil production and there is a major increase in oil demand in China and India. In a few years (2012 at the latest) world oil production will go into steep decline.
We have not seen anything yet !
My solution, in part, is to spend $250 to $400 billion on a) electrifying our railroads so they do not use diesel b) expanding and improving the railroads so that their speed and reliability can compete with trucking and c) letting the market transfer more and more long distance runs to rail, and shippers move warehouses back onto rail spurs.
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=168&Itemid=91
Best Hopes, it is going to be TOUGH in the next few years,
Alan Drake
Peak Oil Point of View
Discussion in 'Truckers Strike Forum' started by AlanfromBigEasy, Apr 1, 2008.
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and how many years do you think it will take for our government to build all these railroads and rail spurs for whses....like 2050? o yea and where will they get 250-400 billions again?
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there are many solutions out there, soydiesel, biowaste light crude, cane/not corn for ethanol, gas to liquid diesel, gas to liquid ethanol from co2, crude oil from pig manure, etc,etc,etc. Hey just take a look on the web and you can see how Europe's renewable energy program makes us look like cave people, only because there are many super bright people here in USA that are forced to secrecy against their will. These can all be used even before they finish liying about how fuel cells are years away, they just havent figured out a way to make enough money from them. The truth is oil is too profitable and the ones in possesion and control of it want to squeeze the maximum profit until the last drop is sucked out of the ground. It is funny how suddenly rail roads are the future just after Warren Buffet got into the rail business
Best of all who will they be taxing when the real oil apocalypse becomes a reality, the people at the bread lines? or the gangs from mad max? It is only a matter of time before goverment and the capitalist elite control every aspect of our lives.
Let your voice be heard before it is too late. -
What a circus, check it out.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080401/ap_on_go_co/congress_oil -
The Democrats want to take the subsidies away from "Big Oil" and give it to folks looking for renewable energy.
What's the difference? They are still giving handouts. -
I wonder if they know> Railroads do not load are unload freight and they do not pay lumpers to do it.Allso they give you a set time to do this then demerge kicks in which is not cheap.Railroads dont even tie R untie loads the shipper does.What will happen when their frieght is side tracked and is 2 R 3 days late O well Rocket Scientist at work.
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Check this out:
http://www.switch2hydrogen.com/
This is why, because if these guys can do it with their own money, imagine the posibilities, this is just a primitive example but is a very important example as to why invest in renewable energy and not in more oil. If this was to become a reality then why would we need corn for ethanol? why not focus on soybiodiesel? and GTL diesel? What would happen to the price of crude then? What would happen to health insurance companies in the long run when people begin to breathe cleaner air? -
Chevron (Big Bad Oil Co.) already is doing this.
http://www.entrepreneur.com/tradejournals/article/130378563.html -
A fair enough question.
The Dept, of Defense defines 33,000 miles of the 178,000 miles of US railroads as being "strategic". This includes almost all the main lines and spurs to army bases, defense contractors, etc.
33,000 miles carry almost all of the long distance freight. A crash program could electrify 33,000 miles of railroads in seven years.
After the Interstate Highway system got going, railroads often tore up double tracks and went to single tracks. Putting back tracks that were torn up 40 years ago, and installing improved signals is not difficult, it just requires the will to do so.
As for funding, the railroads are privately owned. Tax incentives could leverage a dime (or two) of tax incentives for a dollar of improvements. (the railroads are spending about $10 billion/year now). The $18 billion of tax breaks for the oil industry looks like a VERY good place to look first for funding.
Intermodal container facilities will transfer to trucks for local or regional delivery for many years. How long will it take WalMart to relocate their distribution centers to rail spurs, to use an extreme example ?
Best Hopes,
Alan Drake -
I'm sorry, but I'm with the leading Scientist on this one.
PEAK oil is a myth created by the banks and the oil industry.
There are no dinosaur remains at 43,000 feet creating oil. Sorry, it just doesn't work that way.
Alaska and South Dakota are said to have AT a minimum 500 million barrels, respectively.
Alaska returns over 1 million cubic ft of natural gas every day. IE pumps it back in the ground.
If you check your history. 1906-1907 You'll note that laws were passed preventing our political nut jobs from taking money from "big oil". But not the banks ..wink..wink.
Check the names on the businesses that were included in the debates of that time. One of these names intertwine with the banking industry, and ONE major oil company. This was the period in which "the Fed" was created.
This was also a period in which a major bank was crushed, and bought for almost nothing. The "bank" that bought it, also had major holdings in the leading Oil producer of that time.
What does this have to do with today????
Once again, that company has reached thru time to "crush" another HUGE bank. On the onset of more power being handed to the FED.
Both banks during the 2 periods, had a run on deposits, caused by rumour. And while they haven't been linked to the recent event (yet), they have been linked to the first.
The wonderful J.P. Morgan. Who by the way, is buying and investing in every viable oil venture out there.
These are the people that control the OIL and the MONEY. The Peak oil theory is a way to insure they remain blameless for pricing spikes in the future.
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