Shortage of Drivers?

I recently heard Kevin Rutherford(host of a show on SiriusXM trucking channel) utter one of the truest statements ever uttered. He said, "We don't have a driver shortage problem in this industry, we have a turnover problem. If the fleets treated drivers better there wouldn't be a problem."

 

Que?

 

There is a fuel shortage. I can't find it ANYWHERE for 1.25 a gallon ... WTF???

 

Yes, there is a shortage of drivers, but what's causing such shortage? The answer is, trucking demand. If the shortage was on drivers alone, wouldn't you think companies would be competing to get a hold of what ever drivers are available? But that is not the case... New regulations (EOBR, HOS, Etc) are forcing companies to use more trucks to move a given volume of freight, hence incrementing the need for drivers even though freight volumes are lower or the same as they where before the implementation of the new rules. This inevitably deepens the truck to load ratio causing freight rates to fall even lower because... Well there's more trucks than freight!! Supply and demand my friends, supply and demand. Goes without saying that trucking companies now have to deal with every corporation biggest nightmare: Expanding their work force on an already thin profit margin without ANY economic gain but loss. In other words, there is a need for drivers but for the wrong reasons. So, salaries will remain low throughout the industry. In fact, so low that they don't compensate for the responsibilities, sacrifices, skills and risks associated with the job, making a truck driving career less attractive that ever. And if this wasn't enough, even the people willing to drive a truck at reduce salaries now have to jump all kinds of hoops and loops, ranging from near perfect health to perfect background to get their class A, making the prospective pool even smaller, leaving trucking companies scrambling to fill the empty seats on their trucks.

 

Eventually all drivers will be replaced by computers. There is already a device working on regular 4 wheeler vehicles. This article from back in 2012 already claims its driven over 200,000 safe miles. There are still obstacles to getting it ready for commercial use, but believe me when its ready drivers will be a dying breed. The system doesn't have to be perfect for it to be viable, it just has to end up in less wrecks than humans do. This whole manufactured driver shortage will be the excuse trucking companies will need to begin automating their fleets.

 

I see Team jobs posted going from east coast to Cali for $1.30 or less a mile. Then averaging back at $2.10 - $2.50.
Pay .40 cents per mile to the team and you can't even pay expenses.
Obviously expenses are being met so it would seem the team takes the hit in pay.

 

Hi Rooster, just to be clear, that's not really a valid indicator. The reason truck stops are jammed nowadays, is everybody is forced to take their 10 hours off at generally the same time. Years ago, the turnover in truckstop parking was much greater. A person would come in, take a nap for 2 or 3 hours, and take off again. That coupled with less and less places to park in the world, creates a parking problem at the places that do allow truck parking.

 

There is no driver shortage. If you look at the real numbers they say are needed and look at the number of trucks on the road, you can see that there is really not a driver shortage. I have heard that there is a 25,000 driver shortage. If you consider that there are 3-5 million trucks on the road, it isn't even a blip on the radar. I think the real problem is churn or turnover where drivers move from one carrier to another. Having looked into this previously, the reason is not pay. It is primarily other issues, such as home time and being treated poorly or disrespected by their current carrier. There is a lack of communication with most of those moving from carrier to carrier. In some cases drivers don't effectively communicate to their dispatchers and in others the dispatchers don't listen to what the driver is telling them. There is also a false sense of what is involved in this industry to be successful. I think most carriers try to get drivers home when needed, but this is primarily an industry that runs irregular routes and sometimes it is just not possible to get drivers home on the date requested without deadheading at considerable expense to the company. Sometimes, drivers don't communicate far enough in advance for his dispatcher to find a load that will get him home. When you drive otr, you will miss things going on at home. You may miss a birthday on occasion or a ball game or school play. It is the nature of the business. You need to either accept it as part of your career or find something else to do. Of course, you can also buy your own truck, get your authority and run how you want.

But, there is no driver shortage. Truck stops are jammed and I see more trucks on the road than ever. If there is ever a time when truck stops are empty or there is a need for an additional 300,000-500,000 drivers, then I might agree there is really a shortage. That would mean there is a need for 10% of the seats to be filled. This is an industry where someone from any other field can start a new career after only a few weeks training. All the over regulating is driving many of the better drivers from this industry. Most of the more qualified drivers will be leaving the industry within the next 10-15 years. Some are fed up with all the regulations and others are simply going to retire. There has been some discussion about prohibiting CDL holders to not be able to work after they reach 68 years of age. In the past, drivers could work as long as they could pass the dot physical. Many of the older drivers are in better shape than many less than half their age. This could create a real driver shortage. I have been around this business for a long time. I have heard talk about driver shortages for decades. It is just manufactured. It isn't true. When there is only a 1% shortfall for drivers, there is NO shortage. If you think that making $40,000-50,000 or more is not a good wage, then perhaps you should find something else to do. Life is too short to work at something you don't enjoy. But, remember, the grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence. There will always be things you don't like about your employer. If you want to be home every night, then find a job that will make that possible. Not everyone has the experience or education to find a local job that will pay them as well as being otr.

 

I agree, kemosabi, the problem with statistics, is it doesn't break down where the actual shortage is. The PROJECTED shortage is in OTR, and I think the 3.5 million drivers mentioned covers all drivers, not just OTR, and yes, 25K OTR drivers is more than just a blip on the radar, I think it represents the current shortage, and like you say, in the next few years, as older drivers throw in the towel, we'll see that number jump dramatically, which I believe is what all the hub bub is about.