What is future forecast for truck driving as industry?

The actual fact is nobody knows. Still there are some predicters. Over 1800 small trucking companies went out of business in the first half of 2008. The majority of the trucks these companies owned ended up overseas. This 4.5% drop in capacity means that now the loads are slightly (very slightly) more than capacity. Which should bode well for the trucking industry short term (next 2 years). But, there are a lot of experienced drivers out there with no ride now. The industry may do better. But with more drivers than trucks it may not be the best time to be a company driver. A lot will depend on what percentage of drivers chose to retire or change careers. I have no idea, but my gut feeling is if a company survived 2008, there will be no problem finding drivers. And the drivgers will accept what the company offers just like today.

ln the longer term, it depends mostly on the government. As long as they keep creating more money (.75 trillion for bailouts already, that much in coming bailouts already passed and that is minuimum) then the dollar will keep weakening. THey are putting more money in circulation with no increase in productions or services, so the dollars become worth less. Short term (3 to 5 years) the prices go up on imported goods. but our manufactured goods then are cheaper to export. So long term manufacturing goes up, jobs increase, pay increase eventually offsetting increased prices. In englands case of the devalued pound, this took about 10 to 12 years. During the process, things are rough, but long term it can help. However I do not believe the US had a problem which needed the dollar devalued. The big wi8ldcard is if the government keeps overspending, they will eventually have to monetize the dept, then things get really wild (in a detrimental way).

Now what does this mean to truckers? First they are also consumers and with prices rising, they have it no better than anyone else that way. Second as people are able to purchase less less goods need shipped. The capacity to shipping needs go up meaning the same thing we just went through again. Still, most drivers will be working which will be a benefit when companies using imports have to bite the bullet.

There are alternatives which I doubt will happen and there is much more to this post. But it is getting too darn long and I am not sure anyone is interersted.

But, I am just a trcuker so what can I know. Just ask any dock how smart trcuk drivers are.

Demmy

 

I'm interested. It took Japan 10 years to recover from a housing bubble similar to ours. I have watched the trucking industry for many years, and they always change and survive.

The following short term changes and predictions are taken from Transport Topics with the dates and pages as indicated. Charles "Shorty" Whittington, chairman of ATA said, "There are going to be more bankruptcies." TT 10/20/08 page 28.

Major truckload carriers realize that long-haul irregular route is not attractive as fuel prices rise. They are going after regional business that is less seasonal and less energy intensive. This displaces some of the smaller carriers into more competitive markets where they are less capable. TT 8/11/08 page 1.

With this downturn, many used U.S. trucks have been sold in Mexico, Russia, and other nations. TT 8/11/08 page 31. Manufacturers do not expect a pre-buy before the engine regulations of 2010. Trucking companies with good credit will buy new tractors as needed.

There has been a double-digit increase in domestic intermodal freight switched from the highway, primarily in the East. Rails revenue growth in the third quarter reflected rate increases and a higher rate of fuel-surcharge collections. Norfolk Southern is typical. Their revenue per load rose 24%, and profit rose 35%. Railroads are operating more efficiently as the decline in total rail traffic has relieved congestion. TT 8/27/08 page 1.

 

So, the trucking industry will survive and this may be a good time to purchase trucking stock if you can pick the right company. Once again referring to Transport Topics as indicated.

Most Less Than Load carriers are reporting drops in tonnage and revenue. One exception is Old Dominion. In the third quarter, OD's revenue rose 14%, tonnage rose 7.4%, operating income jumped 25%, weight per shipment rose 8.4% as shipments fell .9%. TT 8/27/08 page 27. Vitran also improved, crediting a 35% increase in cross-border freight between Canada and the U.S.

Todd Fowler, Keybanc Capital Markets said, "Small and mid-sized trucking companies can still be hurt by the credit crunch and go out of business, especially if they're highly leveraged, because the value of their trucks, which they use as collateral, has declined significantly." TT 9/22/08 p. 51.

 

You might as well come on board now. It'll be nationalized within the next 3-4 years. Government health care, pay scale, and holidays. It's gonna be great.

 

Slow... People losing jobs.... Mexican trucks to fill the lost jobs when economy recovers..

 

I started driving in 1961 and it's always been the same. It's a Job (good or bad) its what you make of it. Ive seen Strikes ,slowdowns ,big company's and little come and go . fuel shortages and price gouging ,happy driver till they get in a truck stop with other drivers and all of a sudden there company that they were bragging about earlier all of a sudden turns to cr*p.
Ive seen wages come from six cent a mile to as high as fifty cents a mile.Other wise trucking is changing as it always has , But it here to stay so tie a knot in your rope and hold on it's not over yet. Danny

 

Same problem we had with Canada it will blow over.Danny

 

Danc694u,

is that sarcasm?