Self driving trucks

Causing Tesla crashes with a sticker...I think our jobs are secure for the foreseeable future.

These Chinese hackers tricked Tesla's Autopilot into suddenly switching lanes

 

One of the funniest things I heard, a test of a self driving semi on a Florida back road, came to an abrupt halt when the "command center" had a power failure, and the truck coasted to a stop. It was something the builder hadn't thought of.

 

Having no driver is exactly what they are pushing for. These mega carriers are excited about the prospect. No driver to pay ,no benefits to provide , n o workmans comp to pay, fewer people in the office to pay no hours of service deal with , no complaints about loading and unloading times , no detention to pay . The list can go on and on there's no down side for them. And all it will cost them is a few extra bucks for the new driverless equiped truck. The way they see it with cost savings like that ... why wouldn't they?

 

The age of the millenial draws to a close as the age of the minion sets in and the pre apocalyptic world becomes a reality.
But don't worry, we'll all be fed and bedded when we're not busy building pyramids and temples to the gods.

Since I'm old, retired and don't give a flying fart any more, I'm going to sit on the side of the road in a lawn chair and throw empty cardboard boxes and really cheap beach balls in front of the passing trucks to entertain myself while waiting for society to self destruct.

 

Personal opinion- I think self driving is at least a decade away from being common place(technology maturity, etc) also if and when it does become common place a driver will still be wanted in seat "just incase" look how automated planes and railroads are, still a pilot or engineer 30 years later after automation. Land travel is the hardest to get right, sea travel and air travel have proven easier for automation. So in a nut shell I think your driving career will be safe for foreseeable future.

 

No one at the age of 23 will be in the same career in 40 years. Save money and you will be ready for the change.

 

History is marked by innovation. The average guy is never prepared but we all manage to survive, accept, and prosper.

We stopped dragging goods on the ground a very long time ago. Wheels helped and they put many people out of work.

Efficiency grows and we all gain. Or like that one guy said, "you say its called a tractor? It will take 20 mules to pull that thing through the fields, what are you thinking?"

I am thinking... they arent getting rid of your job... they are just changing your title and job description. You will be fine and 20 years later people will laugh at your level of ignorance.

Truck is good for ten years... robot truck will cost $500,000 and save the buyer $350,000 over its life cycle.

Then the glitch comes and your fleet of 1,000 trucks bankrupts you...

Yeah... new guy just starting to drive is probably safe for 20 years and likely 30.

Kids born this morning, maybe they shoukd skip this career because in 40 years a steering wheel will be in the museum next to reins and buggy whips.

But for now... we are all safe.

 

Driverless trucks will hit the road sooner then you think.

First step will be to have s steering wheel holder while the kinks are ironed out. This will cause the driver pay to go down as more and more people can work 10 hour shifts with minimum wage for the least amount of money. Megan’s will find a way to pay less. They always do.

The second stage is harder because all the kinks have to be ironed out on stage 1 before a driver is taken out of the rig and given a desk job to drive from the office. Just like a UAV.

Seasonal jobs like chaining will increase since these trucks need to be chained. They will just stop and have “chainers” or what ever they are called chain them up and take them off.

Road side repairs will boom.

And truck stops will be clean.

Once stage 2 is perfected one can expect a group of 5-10 joy stick holders operating maybe 20-50 trucks.

Further decreasing overhead.

Owner operators will have to contend with this.

One thing I would think will be implemented to get drivers home every night is a 10 hour trip.

Where every 5 hours truck stops to switch drivers.

Example:

Driver A leaves Los Angeles to Vegas, takes another truck back to Los Angeles, while the original truck leaves Vegas to another destination 5 hours away for another driver change.

These can be either terminals or truck stops.


Just a thought but for now

I don’t see it happening at a large scale for 10 years.


The one thing I’m worried about is the Nikola 1 rig.

That will disrupt the market for rates.

 

How much do you think that truck costs?
I ask, because you can buy a self driving car right now... for 5-10k extra. Its not autonomous. Which means i still have a job... and i wont work for less than i am getting right now. Real autonomous is expected to add 100k plus to a price tag. That doesnt include the liability. My guess is it will add $350k to the end price.

When i was a kid... a briefcase cell phone was available in los angeles. 30 years later bag phones... it was another 20 years before the modern smart phone became available.

I see this as the same thing. Granted we are 20 years into self driving right now... but i still see it as a long way off as a common practice.

Personally i dont know why they dont sideline some of the tech and go to a magenetic reflective paint strip on the road. Infinitely easier... cheaper and it would speed the technology while they keep plugging away on autonomous.

It is coming... but most things really take a generation or 2 to catch on.

That really is our history.

 

Self driving tech is already here.

Tesla isn’t calling their tech self driving for legal purposes.

Once the law is changed to equate a self driving rig to a human driver then insurance will be the same or less.

Remember politicians want a “safer road” cleaner tech as well.

The cost of the rig at first would be high but a 5 year life span of a rig in a fleet will be more then what current rigs can generate.

You have a rig that potentially can run 24/7, minus the 2 hours for fueling and such. So let’s do the math.

Salary for a team driver let’s say at

50k x 2 x 5 would be 500k, that’s 500k saved over 5 years.

Right off the bat your looking at 150k in 5 years. Multiply that by let’s say number of rigs in fleet?

Your looking at around 150 million.

You will be surprised on what other expenses can be saved.


No workers Comp, no sick days, no bs.

Yes tech sometimes has taken a long time to develop but once we made the jump from bag to portable, the advancement has been so fast that a new phone purchased today is obsolete next year. Just like a computer and once that barrier is broken from stage 1 to stage 2 then it’s all over.


The question is when will that barrier be broken?


As for the Nikola 1, they want to include fuel and maintenance in their price tag.

There was talk about 5-8k a month with all that included.