Reality of my logic

Gotta say, I'm pretty impressed with Trucker Indiana here for asking the same question that gets asked every day BUT actually having a clue what he's getting in to! Congrats, you will probably succeed. No one that ever asks if they should get their authority has any idea or even mentions the specific cost of running the truck and operation.

I think your numbers are all a bit low but that includes your revenue (1.75/mile) so it might average out fine. You should definitely make more at flatbed but there will be a learning curve as an owner.

Good luck. Keep in mind your timing is not good for this but that doesn't mean you won't make it, it just means it will be tougher.

 

The published offer rates are all coming down to the very low $2/mile and below zone on DAT for flatbed right now.. Better than that is gonna be hard to find in your first few weeks or months.

Well.. Maybe not hard to find .. There'll be $2.50/ mile loads but theyll get snapped up in an instant, or they will come with a lot of baggage. Difficult loads, or pain in the butt shippers or high tolls.. Multi drops.

There are too many trucks for the amount of current freight output right now. The low rates has brought many dedicated shippers out of contract to seek lower rates on the spot market. So prices are down but the number of available loads is way up. The carriers who lose their dedicated run now have to go find replacements and naturally theyll turn to hauling spot market which means more and more competition exists to move the available loads. If a shipment gets booked at $400 every week then they never need to raise the price to $500 because its moving steadily at 400. Until some megas go under and reduce the big credit line, bottom dollar bidding truck count, rates will stay down. Youll need some time to establish your MC and find shippers brokers who want to use you routinely at slighter higher rates. Hopefully youll be established when it comes back up. Those who can stay in the game right through to the very bottom will be able to capture the uptick soonest.. And if you survive the dip youll be well disciplined to take advantage of the next upturn without frivolous expense. A rising tide lifts all boats, so even a slob operator can succeed when grossing 10k a week is easy. When its tough to make $4k a week youll see who the real survivors are.

 

Id say it’s a good plan. Pretty accurate. Using those numbers, you’ll Definately best the pm avg. Better than using best case scenario. The way I read it, $15 k dn, $1000 mo pymt.So $40-$50 k Truck purchase price.Your pretty close. Maintenance pm will be higher, unless you run more miles. Some things you have to fix, due to age. Sitting Truck,falls apart faster than a running Truck. I’d plan, on working at least 44 weeks, You May have 4 unwanted weeks off, for repairs. If not, you’re ahead, then take more time off if it’s affordable. Maintenance fluctuates. If lucky, $8000 a yr. but sooner than later, that could double the next yr. or worse triple, with a few major repairs. Add downtime. Real cost, ?????

 

Just a few thoughts ....


Two words come to mind:

UNDER CAPITALIZATION




Take out your personal needs from the budget until you get the business side solid, then add into the fray the personal needs.




Starting out cheap (maintaince fund is way underfunded) will set you up for disaster.



A year is not enough, being a driver alone you should think about three to five years.



Owner operator life is not the same as driver life.



Just because you have some business knowledge does not mean it is in this twisted and convoluted industry.

 

Take your cash and estimated start up costs and DOUBLE THEM. There aren't many $15k trucks that you would want to gamble on driving for a year without a major overhaul. You also don't mention anything about where you will be finding freight to haul. If you plan on working off of the load boards and the spot market, I have some bad news. It really sucks right now, especially in the Midwest. Not trying to be a dick, but it's not a great time to get in right now unless you have enough cash on hand to leave yourself very low monthly expenses. O/O's are dropping like flies at the moment.

 

What is this based on? Personal knowledge or lunch counter meetings?

 

Peanuts and catcalls from the nosebleed stadium seats.

FREE.

Contracts paying 5.00 a mile for a term of 10 years to a shipper PRICELESS.

 

How can a man take his personal needs out of the business budget? Will his wife and kids not need food and electric while he is out?


IMO people sketching napkin numbers fail to give enough weight to their personal needs account. Wifes car dies, roof springs a leak mid winter.

The truck has to cover it.

 

I know of 6 personally, and have seen a few on TTR who claim they are dropping out and going back to being a company driver. Would you like some blood and a urine sample as well, or will that satisfy you?

 

No... was just a simple question. Sorry......silly me to ask.