10 day weather forecast how accurate is it

Check out Ryan Hall Y'all channel on youtube:

 

The problem with weather forecasting, is that weather is a chaotic system. That means that small changes in initial conditions can have major effects later. The short term models do fairly well, but further out you're at best getting a ballpark. The dirty secret about really long term weather models is they all have to have a snubber built in to prevent them from flying off the charts.

It's even harder in places like Colorado (I live there) because a very minor change in storm track can result in a radical change in weather due the sensitivity of mountain weather to upslope wind strength and direction.

 

Local TV forecasters, Accuweather, Weather Underground, and the NWS. Four forecasts and all are different. So, roll the dice and pick one.

 

Weather is predicted using a mathematical model. They are fascinating!! (I'm an odd bird and love math). I could write a dissertation on how models work and are developed and calibrated. In my old occupation as a cartographer, I worked quite a bit with groundwater models and modelers (weather models, groundwater models, nuclear dispersion and decay models, etc are actually very similar in general theory, mathematics and structure. The types of information and behaviors vary greatly, but modeling all those things relies on something referred to as a system of differential equations). In order to produce maps based on these models, I had to have a really good understanding of them and attended several courses in modeling. Now, I'm a sharp cookie in the intelligence department. Usually one of the brighter ones in any training class I ever attended. But, I attended a groundwater modeling course where everybody else basically had a Master's degree at a minimum, humbled me considerably. Without question, the most intense technical class I ever had. And, although I learned an incredible amount, I barely kept up and was basically the bottom of the barrel in that class. The gentleman who I worked most closely with had a PhD in Hydrology and was probably the smartest man I've ever known in respect to raw intelligence and I've known alot of extremely smart individuals!!!
Anyway, problem with models is that although they are extremely complex and refined, they are still only very basic rudimentary representations of what they are modeling. Our current level of technology and science simply can't create a model that will make highly accurate predictions on something like what weather will be a week in the future. It doesn't make them useless. They do provide important insight and information regardless.
Currently, there are about a dozen worldwide weather models developed by different countries and entities that the overall meteorological community accepts as useful. But, the results from those different models often times are strikingly dissimilar. Problem is, which one ends up being the one that most accurately predicted something also varies around enough that none end up being superior to another.
Perhaps one day the technology and science to create more accurate models will develop. But, for today, the best we have is what we use and they can often miss many things. There is a concept generally referred to as Chaos theory that posits that regardless of how complicated and refined a model can be made, it will still be impossible to accurately predict something as complicated as weather regardless, unless by simple luck. But, that luck will not work often.
Anyway, weather predictions accuracy weaken as they reach into the future. The farther out you try to predict, the less accurate the prediction will probably be. It the best we got and we just gotta deal with it.

 

Tell me it isn't so... that you could not have just said that to begin with.
Something so obvious as to be an axiom.

Don't get me wrong; it was an interesting read and I admire the time and effort you put into it.

Here is another question...
Is water wet?

 

Depends on what state water is in.

 

They cant predict the weather for tomorrow, but can tell us how global warming will effect the world years from now.

 

LOL. Well, by now I figure that everyone on this site with any familiarity with me knows that I tend to be verbose. Very verbose!! Haven't you ever noticed my posts tend to be dissertations as opposed to a single sentence?
It comes from a good place though. I was a technical person and when dealing with technical stuff, almost always details matter!! So, my nature is to be way too detailed in most situations. On important stuff, I usually revise things several times to be more concise. But, here I usually don't bother. This isn't a going to be in a report that is published in the Federal Register like many things I've written.

 

Welllllll...

Technically, water is the common name for dihydrogen monoxide in the liquid state.

LOL