2018 Hurricane Season

maybe will get under way at some point but the early part of the season as far as the Atlantic basin and Gulf of Mexico is concerned has been completely quiet.

National Hurricane Center

The eastern pacific however is another matter. It has recently become very active but most steering factors seem to favor keeping the systems tracking south of Hawaii for the time being.

 

Maybe some action developing in the Atlantic basin, finally. Also a wave is currently ongoing in the Caribbean but not seeing a lot of development potential at this time

National Hurricane Center

 

They seem to be having troubles with their computer models this year. A few days ago they thought this Florence would have curved around and be headed NE as a storm by this time. But as you can see, it didn't. In fact they've modified the forecast to increase to a major hurricane and continue slowly WNW with no apparent motivation or destination in mind. There's really showing little guidance for this system other then perhaps the earth gradually rotating into it as it meanders in a stalled state.

 

111
WTNT41 KNHC 062044
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018

Vertical shear has taken its toll on Florence today as evidenced by
a continued degradation of the overall cloud pattern. The
circulation appears tilted, with the low-level center partially
exposed to the southwest of the deep convection. Subjective and
objective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers have fallen, and a
blend of the various estimates supports an initial intensity of 70
kt.

The intensity forecast is relatively straightforward in the
short-term as shear is expected to remain strong, which should
continue Florence's weakening trend, potentially taking the system
below hurricane strength. By 24 hours, vertical shear is forecast
to decrease, and the SSTs gradually warm along the forecast track.
Assuming the overall circulation remains intact, Florence shouldn't
have any problems restrengthening beginning in a day or so. In
fact, guidance suggests that Florence could once again become a
major hurricane in 4 or 5 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one, and is only adjusted to
account for recent trends. Largely, the official forecast is close
to the various consensus aids.

Owing to the degraded structure and tilted nature of the system,
Florence has wobbled a bit to the west, but the longer-term motion
estimate is 305/09. Low- to mid-level ridging should cause
Florence to turn toward the west-northwest and west between 12-48
hours while the cyclone recovers from the strong shear. Thereafter,
Florence is anticipated to become a deep cyclone again, but an even
stronger ridge should maintain the west-northwestward motion, at a
faster speed, through day 5. The ridge is forecast to be
sufficiently strong such that some track models show a motion just
south of due west during the next 12-36 hours. Beyond day 3, the
track forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to differing
evolutions of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic. While
all of the global models show a progressive trough eroding the
ridge, they differ in the strength of the trough and the ridge to
the north of Florida. These differences result in a great deal of
bifurcation in the track guidance, especially among global model
ensemble members, at the end of the forecast period. In such
situations, prudence suggests a reliance on continuity, and the the
new official NHC track forecast is shifted only slightly south
towards the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA. It is important to
note that deterministic track models in these types of situations
often display considerable run-to-run changes, and the uncertainty
in this forecast remains larger than normal.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin
to affect Bermuda on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this
weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track
beyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other
impacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week.

 

Things are ramping up. In a worst case scenario, this early setup could be a foretelling of a rare 1-2-3 punch for the US, at some point down the road. An administration’s and insurance companies worst nightmare - having 3 major hurricanes make landfall within a few weeks. But it’s too early to worry about such a dire possibility



National Hurricane Center