A 5 year outlook on oil

We were supposed to have $200 bbl oil now ... that was the experts prediction.

A long time I sat in a class about economics. The lecturer talked about oil and then prediction that it will go to $50 bbl, but within five years it was going down and stayed there for a long time.

 

Gasoline is already up there. I did manage to fill 40 dollars top off on 1.95 when its now over 3.20 give or take.

We do not take in Iranian Oil. But our Allies do. I expect a proper short shooting war 80's style when we spent a few hours one night sinking essentially the entire Iranian Navy what little there is of it.

Our Navy has weaponry that did not exist in the 80's among other benefits and it would be very hard to locate a Carrier and sink same. If they were stupid enough to actually sink a CVN in the Middle East area then you might as well go get gas asap because were going to war.

In my old home I kept a supply of fuel and gasoline on hand. Roughly a months worth. Fire Chief does not like to hear things like that.

I do not drive much. About 90 miles annually. Maybe 640 total miles in the last 6 years or so and there is 25 gallon tank So... 4.00 fill becomes a 100 fill. At 8.00 a 200 dollar fill. At 12.00, 300 dollar fill.

Only I wont fill at those values because it's a awful lot of gas in that tank worth killing me for it, they can just take the whole vehicle and drain that tank at their leisure. If the Iranians really want to hurt us for a while they need to hit three places. Hammond LA, Ought One in Kentucky, and one facility in Oklahoma that essentially IS the entire US Market by the train load.

I also remember the first Arab Oil Embargo imposed against us in America for daring to help Israel in her wars. If they were to do that again, I imagine from the stockpiles in Cushing and a couple of other sites will be enough to tide us over a few months. Or we can simply invade and take the oilfields for ourselves.

We live in a totally different time between this year and 1973. When I think about the possibilities I just open a blank notebook to a random page and say to you; here start writing your history. Your children will be able to read this some day and understand.

 

If you can accurately play the oil futures game why would you do anything else

 

The United States is now the number one oil producer in the world, if the barrel price remains higher than what is needed to frack at a good profit the supply will rapidly increase and prevent high spikes for any significant amount of time.

That is of course assuming that our government does not take action to cripple the domestic supply, we have an entire Party that is committed to doing exactly that and returning the power of the spigot back to the Middle East; if that happens then no price projection could be considered too high.

Oil is no different than any other Market, supply and demand regulate the price whether they happen organically or via government force; in this country our enduring history indicates that we are the only ones who can hurt ourselves significantly and we frequently do exactly that on election day.

 

Nice thread and very interesting. Thank you.

I don’t see oil moving much outside of the $50 to $80 range as long as the current President is in office. He wants it high enough that our producers keep profitable and us continue number 1 in the world. But he scolds OPEC on the regular for cutting production to try and manipulate oil prices because he sees higher oil being a tax on America.

Now not being political just saying if he’s not re-elected in 2020 I’d guess oil will eventually skyrocket as a new Green President will eventually regulate producers to death and put the brakes on production. This will make the rest of the world very happy as they can’t produce as cheaply as we can.

Just my opinion!

 

I am not talking politics at all either.

I will say this.

There are four particular congress people just elected to that Office recently have been making noise about water, carbon credits etc. They have managed to involve the agenda of the so called Green Party. It's a form of Cancer. Yet no one is willing to do the necessary Surgery or accept that we have had presidents in some cases essentially plotting to gag and blindfold Lady Liberty in certain things so that they can rule indefinitely a long time.

We live in interesting times.

 

I generally see Silver to Gold at around 78 to one. Naturally over the entire existence of these two metals, it's 15 to 1 give or take a little bit.

I am working on Silver Bullion, nothing too exciting. At some point there will be a sufficient correction in the Market to create a new ratio of 15-1 and that should be I think, a very good day.

 

It has?

Gold against oil with fiat currency being used as a stablizing trading vehicle?

Define monopolies?

I mean if you are talking about OPEC, then we have to know how the oil market works and what product type is promoted to what specific markets.

Fracking has produced more from existing wells and has helped us become more independent and less interdependent. No matter how much we flood the market with oil, the price per bbl won't go down unless there is an increase in production by OPEC producers.

This morning I am seeing problems in the gulf with Iran attacking Saudi oil, this will push the price up and the experts can't account for that on the spot or futures market. While that is going on, the market, like all other markets is an emotional animal.