Are we fixing to see a huge purge in trucking?

And that’s going to be the kicker on this go around. Enough medium size fleets go under and banks coast to coast will freeze up at the mention of someone needing credit to do anything with trucking. And the ones that do will be back to charging 15%-25% interest rates, asking for additional collateral like your house or investments, etc.

The cheap and easy money is gone. That should put a good damper on capacity as well.

 

These interest rates are only new for anyone born generation X or later. Some people alive and in the business have seen interest rates waaay worse and we ain't seen nothing yet.

 

I interpret that as "we made a bunch of bad loans to people we shouldn't have to buy over priced equipment and now we're going to blame anyone but ourselves for the loses"

I'd argue that the higher interest rate is actually a good thing for long term growth. Firstly, it promotes saving which will provide more supply for loans. Secondly, it prices out new business speculators - companies like Wework, airbnb, Convoy. These "distruptors" are not improving the economy long term and they would not have been possible with more "normal" interest rates.

 

And that’s not all bad

 

Remember the days of wine & roses a few years ago.When it wasn't uncommon to see threads almost daily asking how to put more trucks under their authority .
Because their thought they were killing it and had talked their friends or relatives into buying trucks and lease them on under their authority !
I hope their some of the 1st to go down the toilet bowl for a number of reasons .but stupidity & greed being 2 of the reasons

 

I have a cousin that has a pressure washing business. He’d come over to wash the truck and tell me all about his other customers. One guys was down the road from me. He was in the same segment. My cousin would tell me how great they are doing and how he’s got 6 or 7 trucks running and he’s only 26 years old. And why don’t I have more than one truck. I told him I have been there done that and when this bubble burst his friend is going to be hurting.


His friend has been out of business for about six months now. And my cousin doesn’t ask me stupid questions like that anymore. He still ask plenty of other stupid questions though….

 

It’s not, but it’s still a double edged sword.

 

Exactly my point
I've got neighbors that their dad was in trucking his adult life.. made a living.. he passed about 2 years ago his boys took over they when out and bought 5 or 6 trucks hired some sketchy drivers and cut the rates around here by .80 to 1.20 a mile and run the trucks & business into the ground by this summer.
Their down to 1 old FLD that I wounder how it is even road worthy

 

You can tell the things are slow by the amount of trucks on US-Canada border.
I went to Toronto on Friday afternoon and there was nobody at the Sarnia crossing.
Usually on Fridays you have to sit in heavy traffic, because there are so many trucks going home , but not now lol

On the bright side I finally started to see automotive freight on the load boards today in Detroit. Seems like volume is about 30% more than yesterday.

Hopefully the need to resolve backlog of parts, plus the starting holidays freight, will make the rest of the year end on a good note.

 

My usual cross-border Canadian load that I've been doing for five years, one to three a week like clockwork was ghost mode for two weeks, and then the last two weeks have been half truck partials, when it's usually a full truckload outbound.