Bust is sooner than you think....

Ummhmmm...yet the naysayers and doomsayers just keep repeating that it won't last...yeah, we KNOW....so why keep repeating it? Thanks Mom and Dad! We're all growdeded up now though!

 

Personally, I believe barrel prices and/or government regulations will have more to do with it than anything else. They do have years and years worth of productive drilling that they can do if the bottom line remains profitable. Let the prices drop to break even or less and that's when you'll see it dry up fast. In Arkansas, the state began regulating the disposal wells and thats when the party packed up and left....I'm told. There are some wells still be drilled...just not as many.

With all of the new oil being brought to market in the US and Canada, if the Iran deal holds out and they are allowed to market their oil again...we could see lower prices sooner rather than later. It would be a boon for the economy...but could be a bust for our new oil boom. As mentioned many times...get all you can get and save all you can....nothing is ever guaranteed to last.

 

No need to be offended. The comments are not directed at you. The topic is worth discussing though. For one, it's helps that we share opinions on all topics not just the positive. It helps us to see the signs when they are there. It also helps the newbies to keep there expectations lowered and keep their heads in the game.

 

Lol the bust isn't happening anytime soon. The advancement in technologies in the recent years has catapulted the USA into uncharted waters for oil production. By the year 2017 we will basically be energy independant. I study this stuff every day all day. There's always a small chance it could happen, but just from what has taken place in the last few years I wouldn't be paranoid at all. Infact I'm lining up a fleet of oil trucks for myself as I type this. Rest easy for now and get to work!

 

All a person has to do is remember the big oil bust of the 1980's in Texas and Ok. Things were roaring wide open until around the mid 80's, then they wern't.

 

I hope your optimism is well founded because that would be great for all of us. However, those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. Spend your money wisely because the bank parking lots will be full of repossessed $60K pickups bought by fools.

During the real estate bubble that triggered the Great Recession there were plenty of pundits and realtors proclaiming there was no bubble. I have a hardy laugh every time I think of that. Every boom has a bust and NOBODY knows when it will come. Enjoy it while you can and make the money now.

 

Well said. We all know the bust will come so discussing it and trying to stay ahead of the game is just smart business. I can tell you that Midland/Odessa is nowhere near as busy as it was two years ago. The truck stops used to be overflowing and vacant apartments had a shelf life of 1-2 hours, no exaggeration. Today it's very easy to find a vacant apartment and the truck stops are busy but not like they were. There's still plenty of money to be made out here but you should probably be a little selective with who you hire on with.

 

On one hand you guys say that you wont see it coming then you say you continually harp about the bust so you can share ideas and recognize a coming crash...which is it?
....And where are these indicators you're "sharing"?
All I see is you yelling that the sky is falling!

 

I have a feeling that a lot of the 60k pickup trucks and such are being purchased by people who weren't old enough in the 80's to know anything about it... although I have seen some who do know better do it anyway.

Imo... research should focus on the amount of oil being consumed world wide vs the amount being produced. Anyone who doesn't think the prices can drop...just look back to 2008-2009...somewhere in there, barrel prices were in the $40 range. Supply outpaced demand during the recession.

I read an article somewhere that stated the cost of producing a barrel of oil in the US shale reserves at $70+/barrel vs $30+/barrel in the middle east where the oil is easier to get out of the ground and refines easier. When/if we see a situation where supply is ahead of demand...again...we will see a significant drop in oil related jobs. Thats just how it works. There are huge amounts of oil being brought to market right now.... dont ever underestimate the power of supply vs demand.

 

Its no problem... You dont HAVE to agree or discuss it. We can though.