Capacity crunch incoming

CDL schools seem to be training every felon leaving prison and every DUI driver leaving court. The next day they wind up on the forum asking where to work.

 

Ehhh i dont think its going to be as much of a crunch as you think it will be. 200k drivers sounds like a lot sure. But depending on the source, you have between 3.5 million and 5 million truck drivers. Thats around 5% of all drivers at most. And keep in mind its over two years or more with people coming into the industry so its not going to be an all at once hammer blow but a sloe bleed. So rates wont be affected too much.

What it WILL do is remove a LOT of bottom feeders who are running barely legal or flat out illegal. It will get rid of a some of the absolutely lowest rates. And your likely going to see the states this effects and/or these illegals and non american bottom feeders try to find a way to sidestep the issue entirely.

Will it help? Sure, and your likely going to see a pretty big drop in wrecks and such ill bet. But its not going to just fix the industry. This is the equivlent of washing a wound to see how bad it actully is. Not even a bandaid in the grand scheme of things. And we arent even talking low hanging fruit. This is picking fruit out of the dirt.

Rates arent going to rise across the board either. what will happen is the ones you cant even make a profit on if your running legal, paying taxes and maintaoning your rig will go away and the rates will come up to the $1 or so a mile where bigger companys with enough trucks can BARELY eek out a proft. Some of the general rates may go up a bit due to all these bottom feeder loads now competeing against them. But it wont be by a lot especially not on the load boards.

More specialized or fixed routes arent going to change much if at all. And your likely going to see a bit of a reduction in used truck prices if not a crash as several tens of thousands flood the market. Also wouldnt suprise me if many of these morons swap to hotshot or class B trucks which are a little to a lot less well regulated as well and the rates end up staying low.

Basically TLDR this helps. But its not a magic bullet.

 

There really isn’t and it’s been this way since the start of Covid..at least that’s how I’ve seen it. It’s almost like cops don’t want to deal with it anymore because of how dangerous their job has become.

 

So it’s just a political side show..thanks for clarifying. Seems they should start with Florida where it’s like 1 out of ten drivers speaks English.. Florida gives out so many they don’t even bother keeping track. Wonder why they are quiet about it here..just like they were going to have ICE at the weight stations..when, next year?

 

Guys, this is not just non Domiciled CDLs, it's affecting literally everyone who came here through the Mexican border during last 4 years. It's affecting everyone who is here on some kind of Humanitarian parole and/or applied for asylum. Like in my state of Michigan there is no Non Domiciled CDL, but there a Limited Term CDL. Different state have different names, but all those people gonna be affected.
Do you hear in the news that hundreds of thousands of Haitian, Venezuelan, Cuban, Afghan and whatever other nationalities losing parole? They are affected. There are also tons of Ukranians who came in during last couple years.

There are also people who applied for asylum 10-20 years ago and still don't have a green card, they all won't be able to drive.

I am a first generation immigrant and all my friends are first generation immigrant truckers. You just have no idea how many people here drive trucks and don't have citizenship or green cards. Just few examples of the companies that I know the owners.
Company one has 12 drivers and 6 of them are on parole. Company two 23 drivers and 20 on parole. Company three 30 drivers and all 30 of them are on parole. Company four 150 trucks and 60 drivers are on parole.

It's not 200k people that gonna lose CDL, it's probably more than half a million to a million. Did you hear that 40% of Cali drivers are now Punjabis? I would bet that more than 3/4th of them don't have green cards.

They also gonna do an audit and cancel all the CDLs that were given with violations in the first place, like for some Canadians , Mexicans and people who's asylum petition has ended already.

Yeah, this is not gonna be just 5% of the work force they estimated, they just don't have the clue themselves yet.

 

Im just going off what was said in the thread. Ill be honest im running 3g internet atm so loading web pages takes like 5 minutes and video is right out so i havent really looked into this stuff. If im wrong i appoligize. Im literally just doing my wind down routine for the night lol.