Capacity crunch incoming

Other than insurance, owner ops have access to nearly the same discounts as fleets these days. The NASTC fuel card and Mudflap have fuel prices in line with the megas. Owner Ops have access to national account pricing on tires.

 

This million more truck of today vs 2020 is a direct aftermath of PPP and EIDL loans.
4 years later, the money reserves are running out, it seems. Combine it with the cheap labor from overseas and you have a formula for a slow death of many small size carriers. Many, who took loans for less than $200k, shut down the shop and filed for bankruptcy. Their personal assets remain intact. Another example of the Government policies ####ing up a free market industry.

 

I’m pretty sure this will have a measurable effect on capacity. 200K drivers is substantial, but we’re so far over the equilibrium that this can be soaked up easily by increasing the current driver’s hours/miles by 5 to 10%.
However, it’s not 200K. It’s 200K not renewed PLUS the number that would have been issued before this rule enforcement. So the NET change will be more like 400K, and THAT iIS a significant number.

That 400K number is also concentrated in a couple of segments of the industry: ag, construction and load board OTR. Those segments are going to be disproportionally impacted.

 

Just an FYI.

Trucks-
In 2020, we had ~3.8-4 million semi-trucks registered/on the road.

With the peak of 4.2 million in 2021/2022

Today, as of July, we have ~2.8-3 million semi-trucks registered/on the road.

Drivers -
In 2020, we had 1.93 million CDL holders.

Today. We have 2.13 million CDL holders, 20-26% is estimated to be foreign nationals.

Sources - ATA, Gartner, DoL.

Now these numbers do not make sense.

Why?

Hell if I know.

I just know the failure rate between 2020 and 2022 was huge, and the number of marginal operators rose fast post-COVID and continues today.

Someone else can post the tonnage and capacity figures.

 

200k would be substantial if they were all to leave the industry inside 3 months. But that's not what's going to happen. They have until their license renews to become compliant, and I'd guess that a significant number just need to file some paperwork and get their license expiration to match their work permit's expiration. And let's not forget that probably 1/3 of those 200K would have left the industry anyways.

 

Wrong post. Withdrawn.

 

Correct, I have 98-99 engines and I am also legal from the EPA standpoint

 

Market already exploded yesterday and today. Detroit dry van loads count was hovering around 500 in am for the last few weeks, today it's 800. Chicago usually 2000-2500, today is 4000. Have not checked other states yet.
Government and everyone is underestimating how many people will stop driving. Even people who are still legal to drive, are afraid to get on the road right now, because of ICE.
Yesterday and today I am already booking loads at Covid rates

 

We had an anniversary get together last weekend just outside Auburn AL. My DIL is from Nicaragua, totally legal (as a matter of fact she has a business helping other immigrants get legal). Anyway, usually her mom and dad usually show up to such events, but not this time. She said her father was frightened of being arrested because he wasn't totally legal......(which is / was odd to me because that's what she does for a living......but, whatever).
It's a shame, really. There has to be a better way.

 

There are a lot of people who were working through the system that suddenly became "illegal". The information on exactly what changed and for who is scarce and contradictory, and if a person or their lawyer make specific inquiries then that person becomes a target. Easiest and safest option is stay out of sight.
https://www.cato.org/blog/1/5-ice-arrests-are-latinos-streets-no-criminal-past-or-removal-order