Chances of sector downturn or recession

Whatever it is now, it is not the worst it has ever been yet. Lots of people can handle rates even lower than these. I am not saying that running 80-100K all miles and averaging 2 dol per mile is something to be proud of but it is still better from driving as a company driver or to be out of job. The rates are too low to buy new equipment and and not to feel pressure but they are sustainable for a lot of folks who are already in the market.

 

I’d think mostly the latter. If you can’t make the payments; not likely to be taking care of something you’re bout to lose.

 

You are in it now.

Have been for decades. When measured by the same tired .35 a mile everyone insists on paying.

This year it's here now. Like a passing wave. First the customers quit buying stuff. Then retailers run out of warehouse space, then fleets quit ordering trucks to build (That happened last quarter) and at some point the stuff will just quit being in demand. Poof hardly any drivers on the road for a while. There will always be some. The rest get to rot in the drivers room complaining about 800 mile weeks.

Thats one reason I haul nothing but Medicine. Narcotics, cancer meds, trauma kits etc. People always need that everywhere.

 

We are in a transportation sector downturn right now bub. Started last September and continues to go down. Economy is just fine, but when there are too many trucks supply and demand gets out of wack.

There are quite a few people going broke right now. Standard herd thinning. When the eatin is good so to speak, the herd grows until there is not enough food for all, then the weakest and least experienced begin to die until balance is reached once again.

Your goal is to be well fed, athletic, and with big horns. lol. A secret stash of food you built up during good times helps too.

 

And a round of savings.

9-11 destroyed our payroll people. We had enough for almost two months to keep the medicines rolling. Otherwise we were told to go get unemployment without contest from employer. That truck would have sat with no medicines delivered.

We have been short on food, money etc in hard times before. That separates real truckers from wanna bes who don't have what it takes to get it done. But when the actual foundation of what you depend on for a living, the payroll and the people who make it happen on time so you can pay your home bills etc disappear... then it's a real lesson.

 

Already happening.

 

You do not want to touch many of these trucks. Abused poor things.

One of my tasks in life was to be a boss man for a CDL crew part time in heavy truck sales at ADESA in auction at Little Rock. We go through about 30 trucks a sale of all kinds. Usually macks with gas rig tankers too deferred in needed work to be worth keeping, they sell it for what they can get, buy a replacement and keep going.

I probably found about 5 of trucks, two... actually one specifically that I would have bought with my own money at almost any price. That's a VERY rare thing. to have a pristine taken care of tractor able to go to California right now in the winter storms. The rest of them have problems and can burn for all I care. Anyone that buys em is a person about to experience shop bills to fix them.