Crude oil is $86 today.... beginning of the end?

They are still spending the same exact number of dollars... does nothing for the total economy. The economy grew in the 2nd, 3rd, quarter, won't have the first ESTIMATE until feb for the 4th quarter.

It does change which large conglomerate makes profit for the month, but it does NOT grow the economy as a whole... it is the myth to get the public to believe oil is bad. Want to grow th economy, that means growth across all sectors, not take from peter to pay paul, and that is all that is happening.

 

There are 76.4 Million Baby Boomers Boor between 1946 and 1964 And there expenses and spending has been cut dramatically. When you get older you don't spend as much well I don't and I'm a Gen X but that's another story.

There are 325 Million Americans, and combined with the market participation rate at 61% You get this.

Conclusion roughly about 100 Million are working, and 70 Million are on the Dole, and 20 Million are working for Government.

Throw in the retirements of the baby boomers the last groups are on deck for the next 10 years on avg and you begin to see why the prices of most things will fall. This more then anything; should explains alot. Demographic changes, and the whole shabang and geo political things. Just one man's opinion.

 

31 million barrels would be a nice little shot in the arm, very little. We really should have expanded the SPRO decades ago, we're stockpiling 5 weeks of crude which is nothing really. I think the fed has really only tried to crack down on shale under the current administration, in the ND Bakken a huge chunk of the wells are on Fed land, a ton on BIA land and quite a bit on state land. Honestly private wells are probably outnumbered here by government wells. All the wells I pulled oil from today were Federal, but you're absolutely right that the current fed would like nothing more than to end carbon fuels yesterday. If they could knock down the transport costs (Keystone) the wellhead prices would go way up and make the low oil prices more survivable in the shale plays.

 

I keep seeing predictions of $10-$20/barrel. I don't really think it will go that low, but the market is still over supplied and production isn't slowing. In fact, it's increasing. I think that will change in the next 6-12 months, but at some point the market has to adjust to an even larger over supply than we had when all this began.

If oil hits $10/barrel, I would darn tempted to sell my house and anything else I could a dollar out of and invest it...lol. Which is exactly why I don't think we'll see $10 and anything below $40 won't last long...my opinion. If I can see it, I know there are plenty of billionaires that can see it.

 

I agree, I think even in the mid 40 it's a good investment. would look good in my portfolio right next to the Marijuana hedge funds I've been watching.

 

John Dvorak has been saying for a long time, even during the astronomical rise that it should have been $40 so that is where I look for it to settle after bottoming out. No idea where that is.

 

Well in a free market perhaps.
If you have the ability to destabilize or disrupt the cheaper competitors production or disrupt their customers it ads another dynamic.
If you can place trade bans on them even better.
Its possible to win with the most expensive product if you have other abilities.

 

Well, didn't take long for this fellow to be proven wrong... like 4 months.
The good times always seem like they'll last forever....
Until they don't.

 

Retirement of the Baby Boomers have nothing to do with the economy faltering.
As if these Baby Boomers are rolling in all kinds of free dough.
Most of them can't even afford to retire anymore, so they are forced to work until they drop.

Look around; the reason that the economy sucks is because nobody has any dough (Baby Boomer or not).

Jobs stink; lousy pay, no benefits. Great example: Just look at all those high paying mega trucking company jobs; $400.00 to $700.00 a week for 100 hours a week of your time. While the top CEO's are raking in millions of dollars for just.... one man.

No thanks.

Simple equation: If the people have no money, then no money gets spent, then the economy shrinks.
And stop listening to the "NEWS". It's all baloney.
Think for yourself.

 

People have money, and spend it. Apparently Noone that you know. sales of new cars is ip, have to have money to buy one, and not just any car. The 80,000 dollar cars are selling pretty well. New houses get sold.

Freight is up, means someone has to be buying stuff for stuff to get shopped.

The roads are as crowded as always. People need money for gas.

Things are not getting better faster, but it's getting somewhere