Double Yellow's Company Driver to Independent Thread

I have one word of comment here:

Enron

Had a good friend that got the day trading bug back in the late '90's. Did well with the dot.com bubble burst. Kind of became a pain in the ###, thinking he was God's Gift to Investors.

Then he got a hot tip e-mail from an investor subscription thing that had served him well. Dumped almost everything into Enron...

..."THIS STOCK WAS TRADING WELL ABOVE $40 MONTHS AGO! IT'S A STEAL AT $1.00!!!"...

Turns out that investor advisement service was doing a "pump and dump". Sure enough, within minutes of his purchase the stock went up 20% as subscribers bought.

Then the bottom fell out. By the time he tried to sell trading on the stock was suspended. Then came news of the bankruptcy filing.

Almost his entire portfolio was wiped out within an hour. I was there at his home with him when it happened.

It's a hard thing to watch a father and husband in shock as his wife and daughter try to digest the fact that college is no longer an option.

 

I read a book by a fella called Van Tharpe. The basic premise of the book was the key to surviving wasn't the position you took but THE SIZE of the position you took. He said we don't don't know which way a stock will go and it's foolish to think you do. He also said that if even if you are correct 90% of the time, the other 10% will wipe you out if you risk too much. His idea was you only have a 50/50 chance so never risk more than 2% of your capital on any one position. This way you can be wrong 10 times in a row and still be in the game.

For example, if you are playing with $100,000 then his rule is you are only allowed to risk $2,000....i.e. if you think a stock will move from 10 to 15 and if it falls to 8 then you are wrong, then your position would be to buy 1000 at $10 with a stop loss at $8. Works good until you violate your stop loss.

He said an investor's capital was like a mechanics tools. Without tools the mechanic can't make a living so protect thy capital at all costs.

 

As the old saying goes, never put all your eggs in one basket. Something that can be applied to many aspects of our lives.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4060487-celadon-group-story-ends-chapter-11

This is a thorough look at what's going on. This probably isn't a good penny stock to say the least.

 

Very tempting to short this in the am. Closed around 1.60, so there's room. But, I've always been on the wrong end of these bets. I held out long on Circuit City until the bitter end hoping Carlos Sims would buy it.

 

Truckers talking about the stock market. Nice to see something unexpected lmao. Celadon is in trouble.

 

The more I read, the worse it looks. I have a feeling Celadon isn't the only greedy company that was pumping credit on the premise of unending growth models, and this may very well have a 3-5 year domino effect. This time next year we could see used trucks lower than 90's auction prices. Quality was cooking worse than Celadon, pushing depreciation losses down the road. Yeah, those lease purchase trucks only lost 6.4% of their value the first year, uh huh.

 

Nope. Author was Van Tharp or Tharpe.

 

Welp. I made the call this morning at 805 am. Buy up to 1.60 to xx $ total. I'm young enough if they go belly up it won't hurt and I've got time to be patient for them to rebound. So 10 or 15 years ill look back on this day as either the day i pissed away my next petercar or the day my retirement fund nearly doubled (if it ever gets back to 25$)