Double Yellow's Company Driver to Independent Thread

Discussion in 'Ask An Owner Operator' started by double yellow, Nov 5, 2014.

  1. otterinthewater

    otterinthewater Road Train Member

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    Dang. I got to page 155 or so when DY pulled the rip cord. As a guy thinking about getting into this industry this thread has been one of the best motivators, and then one of the biggest heart breaks.

    I have too many take aways from this thread to even think straight right now. I'm so stoked that I read it. Now to see how I can take what DY posted and test it against my future goals and risk assesment.

    You really should write that book for dummies. I'd buy it.
     
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  3. MagnumaMoose

    MagnumaMoose ~ Princess ~

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    DY still pops in here sometimes.
     
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  4. spyder7723

    spyder7723 Road Train Member

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    Keep in mind a few things. First and foremost money was not the reason he got out of trucking. Secondly he was operating when rates were at a very low point. If he was rinning today he would be making double what he made then. Thirdly he was running dry van...historically the lowest paid and highest level of competition you can find in trucking.
     
  5. boredsocial

    boredsocial Road Train Member

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    Also keep in mind that he started when rates seemed high and then they fell immediately. No one knows what the future holds so wise men know cash is king. Do not over extend yourself to become an O/O. It's something that is worth doing right, but not something worth doing wrong.
     
  6. rank

    rank Road Train Member

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    Fixed!
     
  7. otterinthewater

    otterinthewater Road Train Member

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    Use of capital and time. I assumed it was strictly a business decision.
     
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  8. double yellow

    double yellow Road Train Member

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    Yup. My timing has never been great, if I knew rates would rebound this much I would have delayed my "retirement."

    I also set out as an Owner Operator when diesel was ~$4/gal so I picked a fuel efficient truck & modified it to be even more fuel efficient. Then diesel dropped to $2 and even dipped into the $1s - killing my "edge" on the competition. That wasn't in my plan, the world was supposed to keep using up dinosaur juice, depleting the supply and making prices go up and up and up.

    I never considered that as oil prices went up, it suddenly became profitable to extract it from regions where it had not previously been economically feasible. I didn't consider that a whole bunch of people would rush in to do so at once, creating a temporary oversupply that would cause diesel prices to plummet.

    That was myopia on my part - had I looked independently at the history of oil prices I would have found that same trend happening over and over every 5-10 years. Similar cycles happen to rates and freight demand. In fact, rates are usually good when oil is high so, in hindsight, designing a business around something that mostly happens near market peaks is pretty dumb.

    But things always look much more clear in hindsight. Give your business a nice big margin of safety and you'll weather most of the unknown unknowns...
     
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  9. spyder7723

    spyder7723 Road Train Member

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    Hindsight is always 20 20. Just like a couple weeks ago when you were talking about celadon being a good opportunity and i said i wasnt willing to take the risk this time. Sure did blow that one didn't i?
     
  10. rank

    rank Road Train Member

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    What happened when you were playing that horse several months back?
     
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  11. spyder7723

    spyder7723 Road Train Member

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    I bought about 17.5k shares last spring for something like 1.55 a share and sold last fall for over 7 bucks. There was also several auto buy and sales during that run. That deal actually netted more income than the truck did, and took a grand total of under 5 hours of time through out the year. It also netted a huge capital gains tax bill. Even with the ridiculously stupid high tax bill it was a big win for us. The biggest problem with it was fighting the urge to take the money and gamble on something else, Had to keep reminding myself that being right once does not make me a stock market expert.
     
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