Driving Time Per Day and Breaks

People should look at europe..they're 4 years ahead of America in the game.

 

The premise of your question is flawed. We won’t have adoption of electric semis for long haul usage for three reasons:

1) Usage Fade- Anyone who’s had a cell phone knows the battery degrades over time. The same is true for those expensive truck batteries. Electric car advocates admit there is 2-3% yearly fade but Tesla reports and university studies say it’s higher. Tesla’s own reports show that their car batteries lose 15% capacity after 150-200K miles. That’s about the distance one semi does in a single year.

https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2019-tesla-impact-report.pdf

2) Cold Weather Fade (CWF)-The electrochemical reactions that power the battery get weaker in cold weather. One of the busiest traffic lanes is I-80 across Wyoming which regularly has Winter wind chills from 0 to -20 degrees F. Recurrent Auto did a study of electric cars and saw about a 25% CWF in freezing weather. The winter temps in Wyoming are way below freezing so that 25% loss will be higher.


3) Distance Requirements- Over-the-Road (OTR) drivers need to be able to drive a minimum of 500 miles per day. Surprisingly, Tesla hit that 500 mile mark when brand new, but when you add Usage and Cold Weather Fade there is just simply no way electric semis are viable.

Other drivers have mentioned the absurd cost difference between EV semis and I.C.E. trucks. Also a valid point.

Where EVs will work is for ultra local automated deliveries like Walgreens or grocery store orders. Perfect fit there.

 

This is all true and relevant with current battery technologies. You need to recognize these technologies are rapidly evolving and that after driver pay, fuel is the biggest cost to any fleet. If you think fleets wont switch to EV the minute the infrastructure, reliability and cost effectiveness becomes reality youre not being honest with yourself.

The latest debt ceiling bill included, I think it was $360,000,000,000 (thats 360 BILLION) for green energy improvements.

All of your points are voided by even slight improvements in current battery technology.

The biggest hurdle I see in the near term is the amount of energy that will be needed at every truck stop. It will be enormous and will mostly be needed at night when truck stops will be full of parked trucks charging their batteries while running heat/AC. Then again with 360 Billion you gotta figure maybe half of it wont be completely wasted and that means a lot of improvement.

 

Nope.

I remember debating Mike Shedlock (coast-to-coast/MishTalk) about automated trucks five years ago. He was adamant truck driving would be over in five years. He was always so condescending and whatever irrefutable fact you presented he’d offhandedly ignore it.. He was completely devoid of any practical experience with logistics. This was his favorite picture:


It was like he was a little kid playing with his Star Trek figures on the floor and because he could imagine it, it was going to happen, #### the facts, yet here we all are. Still employed.

500 miles capacity
- 25% Cold Fade
- 3% Yearly Use Fade
= 360miles new capacity

A 28% required improvement, using unknown, undiscovered technology. just to meet the lower, minimal 500 mile bar, isn’t a slight improvement.

 

Then you move to Canada where we don't have that stupid 30 minute break rule and can drive 13 hours in a day with only needing 8 consecutive hours off. (Need 10 total off though. Remaining 2 hours can be a part of the 8 or taken in blocks of at least 30 minutes.) That tightens up the charging window significantly.

I'm not convinced electric will ever be as practical as burning gas/diesel. We've gotten diesels to burn so clean that some are coming out with no EGR and no DPF. I see a hybrid solution becoming the norm simply because its much more practical.

 

Many large fleets expect drivers to drive closer to the 10-11 hours of driving & 1 or 2 30-ish minute breaks per day. It varies tremendously based on appointment times for customers. Driver preference, after customer needs, is the next biggest factor.

 

Nobody has time to stop and charge trucks. Electric trucks at current capabilities are a joke. That's why I mentioned to him in an earlier post a majority of drivers getting paid piecemeal but regulated by the hour, ain't nobody got time for that! HOS isn't even an afterthought in the dreamers talking about electric trucks. You're right that diesel/electric hybrid is probably the only way it'll ever work but that's a practical solution and diesels are dirty/bad so it will never happen. Plus look at what the billionaires stand to lose by not having government subsidized infrastructure upgrades for electric only.

 

And consider the layout of most truck stops.
We back in, we don't nose in.
That would mean some pretty long charging cables, with all the problems that would cause.

 

The truck stops would probably need to hire a couple of guys to connect and disconnect and monitor the chargers. I think ideally you’d be fully charged in an hour or so. Maybe get topped off after your 10 (sleep break). I agree having long cables on every truck would be problematic or a kiosk to avoid at the front of every spot would be disastrous.